Baník Ostrava
vs
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Baník Ostrava 0–2 Sparta Praha
The model makes it 18% Baník Ostrava, 24% draw, 58% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 5.56, 4.17 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Baník Ostrava 0.91, Sparta Praha 2.05.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Sparta Praha are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Baník Ostrava are 12th on 10 points from 10 games; Sparta Praha are 3rd on 18 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Baník Ostrava have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Bohemians 1905.
- Sparta Praha are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Pardubice.
- Last 6 meetings: Sparta Praha 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Sparta Praha 5–2 Baník Ostrava.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha
Baník Ostrava
- L0-1away to Bohemians 190510 October 2026
- D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026
- L1-2Pardubice13 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Jablonec9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Mlada Boleslav6 September 2026
Sparta Praha
- W2-0Pardubice11 October 2026
- W3-0away to Sigma Olomouc20 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
What these results say
- Baník Ostrava did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Baník Ostrava conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Baník Ostrava had three goals or more.
- Sparta Praha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Baník Ostrava | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 10 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Baník Ostrava
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 48% today
Sparta Praha
Chance to finish in the top four · 87% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha
- 28 February 2026Sparta Praha 5–2 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 27 September 2025Baník Ostrava 0–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 18 May 2025Baník Ostrava 3–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 5 April 2025Baník Ostrava 1–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 2 November 2024Sparta Praha 1–3 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 14 May 2024Sparta Praha 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha
Baník Ostrava
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Baník Ostrava carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.96 for Sparta Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.91 goals for Baník Ostrava and 2.05 for Sparta Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Baník Ostrava rate 0.64 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Praha rate 1.16 and 0.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Baník Ostrava a 0% chance of the title and Sparta Praha 5.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Baník Ostrava against 2.05 for Sparta Praha. Baník Ostrava's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.94 for Sparta Praha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Baník Ostrava at home · Sparta Praha away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Baník OstravaSparta Praha
Baník Ostrava are 12th after 10 Czech Liga matches (between 3rd and 12th so far); Sparta Praha are 3rd after 10 (between 2nd and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Baník Ostrava 10, Sparta Praha 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Baník Ostrava
- at Slovan Liberec24 Oct · Czech Ligawin 20%
- vs Plzen1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 21%
- at Zbrojovka Brno7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 25%
- vs Teplice21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 29%
- at Slavia Praha29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 7%
Sparta Praha
- at Olympiakos Piraeus22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
- vs Slovácko25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 66%
- at Bohemians 19051 Nov · Czech Ligawin 48%
- vs Bournemouth5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 50%
- at Plzen8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.