Slovácko
vs
Zbrojovka Brno
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Slovácko 1–0 Zbrojovka Brno
The model makes it 35% Slovácko, 30% draw, 35% Zbrojovka Brno — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Slovácko 1.19, Zbrojovka Brno 1.20.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Slovácko and Zbrojovka Brno are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Slovácko are 15th on 7 points from 10 games; Zbrojovka Brno are 8th on 16 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Slovácko have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Slovan Liberec.
- Zbrojovka Brno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to FK Jablonec.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 June 2024, ended Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 Slovácko.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slovácko at 35% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno
Slovácko
- W2-0away to Slovan Liberec11 October 2026
- D2-2Baník Ostrava19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bohemians 190512 September 2026
- D0-0Pardubice5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Plzen30 August 2026
Zbrojovka Brno
- L0-1FK Jablonec10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav19 September 2026
- W2-1Artis12 September 2026
- L0-4away to Slavia Praha5 September 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové2 September 2026
What these results say
- Slovácko failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Slovácko had two goals or fewer.
- Zbrojovka Brno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Slovácko | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Zbrojovka Brno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Slovácko
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 46% today
Zbrojovka Brno
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Slovácko vs Zbrojovka Brno
- 29 June 2024Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 SlováckoFriendlies Clubs
- 30 April 2023Slovácko 1–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 30 July 2022Zbrojovka Brno 2–2 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 21 April 2021Slovácko 4–2 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 16 December 2020Zbrojovka Brno 2–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Slovácko and Zbrojovka Brno
Slovácko
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín40
- A. Vaníček31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Slovácko carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.6 for Zbrojovka Brno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Slovácko and 1.20 for Zbrojovka Brno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slovácko rate 0.67 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zbrojovka Brno rate 0.71 and 1.17.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zbrojovka Brno, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovácko the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Slovácko against 1.20 for Zbrojovka Brno. Slovácko's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.17 for Zbrojovka Brno.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Slovácko at home · Zbrojovka Brno away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SlováckoZbrojovka Brno
Slovácko are 15th after 10 Czech Liga matches (between 11th and 16th so far); Zbrojovka Brno are 7th after 10 (between 2nd and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Slovácko 10, Zbrojovka Brno 10.
Slovácko score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Zbrojovka Brno have let in 4 there.
Zbrojovka Brno score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Slovácko have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Slovácko
- at Sparta Praha25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 13%
- vs Teplice31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 31%
- at Zlin7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 36%
- vs Hradec Králové22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 33%
- at Artis27 Nov · Czech Ligawin 38%
Zbrojovka Brno
- vs Bohemians 190524 Oct · Czech Ligawin 37%
- at Sigma Olomouc31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 27%
- vs Baník Ostrava7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 47%
- at Pardubice22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 34%
- vs Plzen29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.