Degerfors IF
vs
Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Degerfors IF 1–0 Kalmar FF
The model makes it 40% Degerfors IF, 31% draw, 29% Kalmar FF — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Degerfors IF 1.20, Kalmar FF 0.93.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Degerfors IF are 13th on 20 points from 23 games; Kalmar FF are 14th on 19 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Degerfors IF are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Mjallby AIF.
- Kalmar FF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Malmo FF.
- Last 6 meetings: Kalmar FF 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Kalmar FF 2–1 Degerfors IF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Degerfors IF at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
- D1-1away to Mjallby AIF10 October 2026
- L0-1Hammarby FF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sirius14 September 2026
- W2-0Halmstad5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IF Elfsborg29 August 2026
Kalmar FF
- L0-1away to Malmo FF12 October 2026
- L0-5BK Hacken20 September 2026
- L0-1away to IF Elfsborg13 September 2026
- L0-1Djurgardens IF7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Halmstad29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Degerfors IF had two goals or fewer.
- Degerfors IF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Degerfors IF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Degerfors IF | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 20 |
| 14 | Kalmar FF | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Degerfors IF
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 44% today
Kalmar FF
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 56% today
From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF
- 23 May 2026Kalmar FF 2–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 21 October 2023Degerfors IF 1–3 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 10 June 2023Kalmar FF 2–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 30 July 2022Degerfors IF 2–1 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 17 April 2022Kalmar FF 2–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 12 September 2021Kalmar FF 4–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Degerfors IF carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.19 for Kalmar FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Degerfors IF and 0.93 for Kalmar FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Degerfors IF rate 0.44 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kalmar FF rate 0.44 and 1.67.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Degerfors IF the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Degerfors IF against 0.93 for Kalmar FF. Degerfors IF's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.67 for Kalmar FF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Degerfors IF at home · Kalmar FF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Degerfors IF 23, Kalmar FF 23.
Degerfors IF score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Kalmar FF have let in 7 there.
Kalmar FF score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Degerfors IF have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Degerfors IF
- at BK Hacken24 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 19%
- vs Vasteras SK FK28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 29%
- at Djurgardens IF1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 12%
- vs Gais7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 24%
- at AIK Stockholm21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
Kalmar FF
- vs IF Brommapojkarna24 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 31%
- vs Gais29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 23%
- at Mjallby AIF2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
- vs Sirius8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 21%
- at Orgryte IS23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.