Sarmiento Junin
vs
Barracas Central
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Barracas Central
The model makes it 40% Sarmiento Junin, 31% draw, 29% Barracas Central — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sarmiento Junin 1.25, Barracas Central 0.99.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sarmiento Junin are 4th on 20 points from 12 games; Barracas Central are 7th on 18 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Sarmiento Junin have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to River Plate.
- Barracas Central have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Huracan.
- Last 6 meetings: Sarmiento Junin 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 2 April 2026, ended Barracas Central 1–2 Sarmiento Junin.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarmiento Junin at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central
Sarmiento Junin
- D1-1River Plate14 October 2026
- W3-1away to Aldosivi9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Racing Club19 September 2026
- D1-1Belgrano Cordoba13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
Barracas Central
- W2-0Huracan10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Atletico Tucuman3 October 2026
- L0-1Independiente Rivadavia21 September 2026
- D1-1away to Banfield14 September 2026
- D0-0Argentinos Juniors7 September 2026
What these results say
- Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sarmiento Junin.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Barracas Central had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sarmiento Junin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 | Barracas Central | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sarmiento Junin
Chance to finish in the top four · 36% today
Barracas Central
Chance to finish in the top four · 21% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central
- 2 April 2026Barracas Central 1–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 September 2025Barracas Central 0–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 March 2025Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 May 2024Barracas Central 1–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 February 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 2 October 2023Barracas Central 1–1 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Barracas Central
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel144
Barracas Central
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sarmiento Junin carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.64 for Barracas Central. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Sarmiento Junin and 0.99 for Barracas Central. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarmiento Junin rate 0.93 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barracas Central rate 0.71 and 1.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarmiento Junin the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin against 0.99 for Barracas Central. Sarmiento Junin's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.09 for Barracas Central.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sarmiento Junin at home · Barracas Central away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Sarmiento Junin 27, Barracas Central 27.
Sarmiento Junin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Barracas Central have let in 8 there.
Barracas Central score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Sarmiento Junin have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sarmiento Junin
- at Gimnasia La Plata23 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
- vs Rosario Central31 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 32%
- at Tigre8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 29%
Barracas Central
- vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto26 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 54%
- at Belgrano Cordoba1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 21%
- vs Racing Club8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.