Deportivo Riestra
vs
Union Santa Fe
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Riestra 1–0 Union Santa Fe
The model makes it 38% Deportivo Riestra, 32% draw, 30% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportivo Riestra 1.14, Union Santa Fe 0.96.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Deportivo Riestra are 12th on 11 points from 12 games; Union Santa Fe are 11th on 13 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Deportivo Riestra have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to San Lorenzo.
- Union Santa Fe are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Defensa Y Justicia.
- Last 2 meetings: Union Santa Fe 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended Union Santa Fe 2–0 Deportivo Riestra.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Riestra at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe
Deportivo Riestra
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo11 October 2026
- D1-1Central Cordoba de Santiago5 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gimnasia Mendoza19 September 2026
- L0-3Lanus14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Platense4 September 2026
Union Santa Fe
- L0-2Defensa Y Justicia10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Boca Juniors3 October 2026
- L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Riestra did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Riestra conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Riestra had two goals or fewer.
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Union Santa Fe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Union Santa Fe had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Riestra
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 48% today
Union Santa Fe
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe
- 3 April 2026Union Santa Fe 2–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 August 2024Union Santa Fe 0–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Deportivo Riestra and Union Santa Fe
Deportivo Riestra
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona141
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Riestra carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.6 for Union Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Deportivo Riestra and 0.96 for Union Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Riestra rate 0.57 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Santa Fe rate 0.94 and 1.62.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Union Santa Fe, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Riestra the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra against 0.96 for Union Santa Fe. Deportivo Riestra's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.62 for Union Santa Fe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Riestra at home · Union Santa Fe away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Deportivo Riestra 27, Union Santa Fe 30.
Deportivo Riestra score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Union Santa Fe have let in 2 there.
Union Santa Fe score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Deportivo Riestra have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Riestra
- at Instituto Cordoba27 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 20%
- vs Talleres Cordoba31 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 37%
- at Independiente8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 23%
Union Santa Fe
- vs Estudiantes La Plata26 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 35%
- at Newell's Old Boys1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
- vs Velez Sarsfield8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.