Londrina
vs
Cuiaba
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Londrina 1–0 Cuiaba
The model makes it 38% Londrina, 28% draw, 34% Cuiaba — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Londrina 1.39, Cuiaba 1.30.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Londrina are 18th on 29 points from 33 games; Cuiaba are 11th on 47 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Londrina have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Athletic Club MG.
- Cuiaba have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Avai.
- Last 3 meetings: Londrina 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 June 2026, ended Cuiaba 2–2 Londrina.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Londrina vs Cuiaba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Londrina at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Londrina vs Cuiaba
Londrina
- D2-2away to Athletic Club MG13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Avai7 October 2026
- L0-2Criciuma2 October 2026
- L0-2away to Vila Nova25 September 2026
- L1-2Fortaleza EC20 September 2026
Cuiaba
- L0-1Avai11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Vila Nova7 October 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta3 October 2026
- L0-3away to CRB27 September 2026
- W3-0Nautico Recife22 September 2026
What these results say
- Londrina did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Londrina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 29 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Londrina
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 93% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Londrina vs Cuiaba
- 25 June 2026Cuiaba 2–2 LondrinaSerie B
- 5 October 2019Cuiaba 0–1 LondrinaSerie B
- 7 June 2019Londrina 1–0 CuiabaSerie B
Leading scorers: Londrina and Cuiaba
Londrina
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Santos113
Cuiaba
GoalsAssists
- Kauan63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Londrina carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.42 for Cuiaba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Londrina and 1.30 for Cuiaba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Londrina rate 0.65 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cuiaba rate 0.54 and 1.31.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cuiaba, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Londrina the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Londrina against 1.30 for Cuiaba. Londrina's attack/defence rating is 0.65/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.31 for Cuiaba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Londrina at home · Cuiaba away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Londrina 33, Cuiaba 33.
Londrina score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Cuiaba have let in 4 there.
Cuiaba score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Londrina have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Londrina
- at CRB24 Oct · Serie Bwin 23%
- vs America Mineiro1 Nov · Serie Bwin 59%
- at Botafogo SP6 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
- vs Nautico Recife14 Nov · Serie Bwin 47%
Cuiaba
- at America Mineiro26 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- vs São Bernardo1 Nov · Serie Bwin 41%
- vs Juventude7 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
- at Atletico Goianiense14 Nov · Serie Bwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.