Juve Stabia
vs
Sudtirol
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Juve Stabia 1–0 Sudtirol
The model makes it 37% Juve Stabia, 32% draw, 31% Sudtirol — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Juve Stabia 1.07, Sudtirol 0.94.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Juve Stabia are bottom on 2 points from 6 games; Sudtirol are 4th on 12 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Juve Stabia are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Virtus Entella.
- Sudtirol are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Ascoli.
- Last 4 meetings: Juve Stabia 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 May 2026, ended Sudtirol 1–1 Juve Stabia.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juve Stabia at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol
Juve Stabia
- D1-1away to Virtus Entella10 October 2026
- D1-1Cesena18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vicenza Virtus12 September 2026
- L0-3Pisa6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Sampdoria29 August 2026
Sudtirol
- D0-0Ascoli10 October 2026
- W4-1away to Arezzo20 September 2026
- D1-1Modena12 September 2026
- W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
What these results say
- Juve Stabia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Juve Stabia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Juve Stabia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sudtirol went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sudtirol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sudtirol had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Juve Stabia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 4 | Sudtirol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Juve Stabia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
Sudtirol
Chance to finish in the top four · 22% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol
- 8 May 2026Sudtirol 1–1 Juve StabiaSerie B
- 27 December 2025Juve Stabia 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 27 April 2025Sudtirol 2–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
- 6 December 2024Juve Stabia 2–1 SudtirolSerie B
Leading scorers: Juve Stabia and Sudtirol
Juve Stabia
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Di Nardo40
Sudtirol
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Juve Stabia carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.57 for Sudtirol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Juve Stabia and 0.94 for Sudtirol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Juve Stabia rate 0.63 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sudtirol rate 0.63 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sudtirol, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Juve Stabia a 0.2% chance of the title and Sudtirol 3.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juve Stabia the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Juve Stabia against 0.94 for Sudtirol. Juve Stabia's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.13 for Sudtirol.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Juve Stabia at home · Sudtirol away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Juve StabiaSudtirol
Juve Stabia are 19th after 6 Serie B matches (between 18th and 20th so far); Sudtirol are 2nd after 6 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Juve Stabia 6, Sudtirol 6.
Sudtirol score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Juve Stabia have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Juve Stabia
- at Cremonese24 Oct · Serie Bwin 21%
- vs Hellas Verona28 Oct · Serie Bwin 32%
- at Empoli1 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Arezzo7 Nov · Serie Bwin 51%
- at Modena21 Nov · Serie Bwin 23%
Sudtirol
- vs Sampdoria24 Oct · Serie Bwin 49%
- at Padova27 Oct · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Cesena31 Oct · Serie Bwin 48%
- at Pisa7 Nov · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Cremonese21 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.