Newell's Old Boys
vs
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Newell's Old Boys 1–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago
The model makes it 45% Newell's Old Boys, 31% draw, 24% Central Cordoba de Santiago — fair odds of 2.22, 3.23 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Newell's Old Boys 1.27, Central Cordoba de Santiago 0.77.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Newell's Old Boys are 8th on 17 points from 12 games; Central Cordoba de Santiago are 14th on 10 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Newell's Old Boys have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Gimnasia Mendoza.
- Central Cordoba de Santiago have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Estudiantes La Plata.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–3 Newell's Old Boys.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Newell's Old Boys vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newell's Old Boys at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Newell's Old Boys vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
Newell's Old Boys
- L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza12 October 2026
- D0-0Lanus3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Platense20 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- D2-2Estudiantes La Plata10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra5 October 2026
- D2-2Defensa Y Justicia18 September 2026
- L1-3away to Boca Juniors12 September 2026
- L0-1Independiente6 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Newell's Old Boys had two goals or fewer.
- Newell's Old Boys failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Central Cordoba de Santiago did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Central Cordoba de Santiago conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Central Cordoba de Santiago scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 17 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Newell's Old Boys
Chance to finish in the top four
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 72% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Newell's Old Boys vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
- 5 April 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–3 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 August 2025Newell's Old Boys 1–1 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 February 2025Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 November 2024Newell's Old Boys 2–3 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 August 2024Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–0 Newell's Old BoysCopa Argentina
- 26 January 2024Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–1 Newell's Old BoysCopa de la Liga Profesional
The full Newell's Old Boys vs Central Cordoba de Santiago record →
Leading scorers: Newell's Old Boys and Central Cordoba de Santiago
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Central Cordoba de Santiago
GoalsAssists
- M. Santos92
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Newell's Old Boys carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.49 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Newell's Old Boys and 0.77 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newell's Old Boys rate 0.71 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Central Cordoba de Santiago rate 0.70 and 1.45.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newell's Old Boys the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Newell's Old Boys against 0.77 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. Newell's Old Boys's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.45 for Central Cordoba de Santiago.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Newell's Old Boys at home · Central Cordoba de Santiago away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Newell's Old Boys 27, Central Cordoba de Santiago 27.
Newell's Old Boys score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Central Cordoba de Santiago have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Newell's Old Boys
- at San Lorenzo24 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 30%
- vs Union Santa Fe1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 43%
- at Instituto Cordoba8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 22%
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- vs Velez Sarsfield26 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 32%
- at Platense2 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
- vs Lanus8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.