Lens vs Lyon Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lens 2-1 Lyon.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Lens, 26% draw, 34% Lyon — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lens at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lens vs Lyon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40R. RisserG
- 24J. GraditD
- 25I. GaniouD
- 32K. AntonioD
- 2R. AguilarM
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 8Y. TitraouiM
- 14M. UdolM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 7F. SotocaM
- 11O. ÉdouardF
- 23Saud AbdulhamidD
- 6S. BaidooD
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 28J. KadileF
- 22M. SkóraśF
- 38M. SoaresM
- 5A. BulatovićM
- 1D. GreifG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 21R. KluivertD
- 16AbnerD
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 23T. MortonM
- 7E. NuamahM
- 10P. ŠulcM
- 8C. TolissoM
- 17L. OpendaF
- 6T. TessmannM
- 99N. NarteyM
- 11Keito NakamuraF
- 18K. MerahM
- 22Clinton MataD
- 85N. KamaraD
- 24J. DuranvilleF
- 40R. DescampsG
- 26K. BoudacheF
Form going into Lens vs Lyon
Lens
- L1-2away to Monaco18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Le Mans13 September 2026
- L0-1Lorient5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Strasbourg29 August 2026
Lyon
- W4-0Rennes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
What these results say
- Lens did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Lens conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lens scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lyon went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Lyon scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lens vs Lyon
- 9 October 2026Lens 2–1 LyonLigue 1
- 17 May 2026Lyon 0–4 LensLigue 1
- 5 March 2026Lyon 2–2 LensCoupe de France
- 16 August 2025Lens 0–1 LyonLigue 1
- 4 May 2025Lyon 1–2 LensLigue 1
- 15 September 2024Lens 0–0 LyonLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lens and Lyon
Lens
GoalsAssists
- F. Thauvin34
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah31
- Z. Athekame22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.