9 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow
Referee: Damian Kos
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Raków Częstochowa 1-4 GKS Katowice.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Raków Częstochowa, 24% draw, 36% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Raków Częstochowa at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Raków Częstochowa0%Draw1%GKS Katowice99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
⚽Ilia Shkurinassist: Bartosz Nowak
⚽Patryk Makuch
37'
48'
⚽Bartosz Nowak (pen)
57'
⚽Mateusz·Kowalczyk
60'
Lukas Klemenz
🔁Marko Bulatout: Adin molnar
61'
🔁Mahir Emreliout: Adam Basse
61'
🔁Jean Carlosout: Isak Brusberg
61'
Karol Struski
68'
70'
🔁Marcel Wedrychowskiout: Borja Galan
70'
🔁Alan Czerwińskiout: Arkadiusz Jedrych
🔁Karol Struskiout: Bogdan·Mircetic
72'
🔁Patryk Makuchout: Lamine Diaby Fadiga
76'
78'
🔁Mateusz·Kowalczykout: Sebastian Milewski
78'
🔁Mateusz Wdowiakout: Eman Marković
82'
Borja Galan
85'
Gabriel Kobylak
87'
🔁Ilia Shkurinout: Adam Zreľák
Jerzy Napieraj
90'
90+1'
⚽Borja Galanassist: Bartosz Nowak

Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice

60%Possession40%
18Shots18
4On target8
6Corners4
1.2xG2.57

Goals against chances

Raków Częstochowa1 from 1.20 xGabout what the chances were worth
GKS Katowice4 from 2.57 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Raków Częstochowa 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 3A. BrorssonD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 2J. NapierajD
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 5M. BulatM
  • 9P. MakuchM
  • 23K. StruskiM
  • 20Jean CarlosM
  • 11M. EmreliF
Substitutes
  • 19N. ZätterströmD
  • 39I. BrusbergF
  • 80L. Diaby-FadigaM
  • 71T. KarićG
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 15O. KwiatkowskiM
  • 44B. MirčetićM
  • 88A. MolnarM
  • 36M. PerovićM
Coach: T. Kaczmarek
GKS Katowice 3-4-3
  • 87G. KobylakG
  • 30A. CzerwińskiD
  • 6L. KlemenzD
  • 55Pau RestaD
  • 23M. WasielewskiM
  • 19K. ŁukasiakM
  • 77M. KowalczykM
  • 7M. WdowiakM
  • 10M. WędrychowskiF
  • 17I. ShkurinF
  • 27B. NowakF
Substitutes
  • 22S. MilewskiM
  • 14M. OlsenD
  • 68B. WolskiM
  • 99A. ZreľákF
  • 15E. MarkovićM
  • 1M. KikolskiG
  • 97E. JirkaM
  • 4A. JędrychD
  • 8Borja GalánM
Coach: R. Górak

Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice

Raków Częstochowa

  • L2-3away to Korona Kielce19 September 2026
  • L2-3Zaglebie Lubin15 September 2026
  • W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026

GKS Katowice

  • W3-2Cracovia Krakow19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin12 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026

What these results say

  • Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Raków Częstochowa101091325-123
5GKS Katowice106042215+718

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice

  • 16 July 2026GKS Katowice 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 April 2026Raków Częstochowa 3–3 GKS KatowiceCup
  • 7 December 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 19 July 2025GKS Katowice 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 8 February 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–2 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 3 August 2024GKS Katowice 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch60
  • M. Emreli31

GKS Katowice

GoalsAssists

  • I. Shkurin81
  • B. Nowak48

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.