Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Jagiellonia 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Jagiellonia, 28% draw, 36% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jagiellonia at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50S. AbramowiczG
- 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
- 5Bernardo VitalD
- 4Y. KobayashiD
- 2C. PolakD
- 14H. FinndellM
- 21Sergio LozanoM
- 30O. SowM
- 11Jesús ImazM
- 7K. SzmytM
- 99N. PrelecF
- 10J. AgbonifoF
- 20B. WdowikD
- 3D. StojinovićD
- 32A. ĆirkovićF
- 72K. JóźwiakM
- 19A. KlyngeM
- 44A. KonstantopoulosD
- 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
- 1M. PerchelG
- 1P. SchulzeG
- 21O. ZmrzlýD
- 26R. JanickiD
- 20Josema SánchezD
- 64E. JanžaD
- 6M. HøjholtM
- 7Y. Ikia DimiM
- 8Paulo BernardoM
- 14J. KubickiM
- 33M. KhlanM
- 23S. LisethF
- 82K. UrbaÅskiM
- 11E. PrekopF
- 19PeterM
- 99T. LoskaG
- 29W. KaniaG
- 27Z. InoussaF
- 34B. DurdovM
- 4P. BochniewiczD
- 2P. WarczakD
Form going into Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
Jagiellonia
- L1-3Legia Warszawa20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- D0-0away to Motor Lublin19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce15 September 2026
- W2-1Lech Poznan12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
What these results say
- Jagiellonia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Jagiellonia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Jagiellonia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
- 10 October 2026Jagiellonia 1–3 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 24 April 2026Jagiellonia 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 26 October 2025Gornik Zabrze 2–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 4 May 2025Jagiellonia 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 3 November 2024Gornik Zabrze 0–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 2 March 2024Gornik Zabrze 2–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze
Jagiellonia
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski41
- Peter40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.