10 October 2026, 12:45 UTC

Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego
Referee: Tomasz Marciniak, Poland
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Cracovia Krakow, 32% draw, 34% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cracovia Krakow at 34% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cracovia Krakow3%Draw94%Zaglebie Lubin3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
⚽Aleks Lawniczak
Amir Al-Ammari
29'
•Gustav Henriksson
49'
53'
Zlatan Alomerović
⚽Ajdin Hasić (pen)
54'
64'
🔁Mateusz Grzybekout: Josip Ćorluka
68'
Josip Ćorluka
70'
David Čolina
sayfallah ltaief
71'
73'
🔁David Čolinaout: Damian Michalski
73'
🔁Filip Szymczakout: Szymon Lyczko
73'
🔁Jakub·Sypekout: Sebastian Kerk
🔁sayfallah ltaiefout: Martin Minchev
74'
🔁Mateusz Klichout: Mohamed Berte
80'
•Ajdin Hasić
90+3'
⚽Ajdin Hasić (pen)
90+8'
90+9'
🔁Filip Kocabaout: Mihael Mlinarić
🔁Ajdin Hasićout: Kamil Glik
90+10'
90+11'
Leszek Ojrzynski
⚽Mohamed Berteassist: Vincent Burlet
90+18'

Match stats — Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin

59%Possession41%
16Shots16
6On target6
5Corners1
3.01xG1.13

Goals against chances

Cracovia Krakow3 from 3.01 xGabout what the chances were worth
Zaglebie Lubin1 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cracovia Krakow 4-2-3-1
  • 13S. MadejskiG
  • 25O. KakabadzeD
  • 4G. HenrikssonD
  • 61B. TraoréD
  • 28V. BurletD
  • 20K. KnapM
  • 6Amir Al AmmariM
  • 14A. HasićM
  • 43M. KlichM
  • 47S. LtaiefM
  • 11L. NordåsF
Substitutes
  • 91A. BobekG
  • 90M. BerteF
  • 77J. ChrapustaG
  • 29W. DejM
  • 15K. GlikD
  • 70D. KameriM
  • 39M. PerkovićD
  • 79D. PiłaD
  • 5B. SelanM
Coach: B. Grzelak
Zaglebie Lubin 5-4-1
  • 33Z. AlomerovićG
  • 13M. GrzybekD
  • 5A. ŁawniczakD
  • 25M. NalepaD
  • 3R. YakubaD
  • 6D. ČolinaD
  • 44M. RegułaM
  • 39F. KocabaM
  • 8D. DąbrowskiM
  • 7J. SypekM
  • 18F. SzymczakF
Substitutes
  • 30D. HładunG
  • 26J. KolanM
  • 37S. KerkM
  • 21Seweryn MarekM
  • 4D. MichalskiD
  • 88M. MlinarićF
  • 31I. OrlikowskiD
  • 11A. WoźniakM
  • 16J. ĆorlukaD
Coach: L. Ojrzynski

Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin

Cracovia Krakow

  • L2-3away to GKS Katowice19 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Wisla Plock13 September 2026
  • L0-1Gornik Zabrze6 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Radomiak Radom29 August 2026

Zaglebie Lubin

  • L0-2Wisla Plock20 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa15 September 2026
  • W2-1GKS Katowice12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026

What these results say

  • Cracovia Krakow did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Cracovia Krakow conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Cracovia Krakow scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Zaglebie Lubin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Zaglebie Lubin scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Zaglebie Lubin.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Cracovia Krakow103251215-311
9Zaglebie Lubin104331213-115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin

  • 10 October 2026Cracovia Krakow 3–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 3 May 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 3 November 2025Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 24 May 2025Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 29 November 2024Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 18 February 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin

Cracovia Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hasić52

Zaglebie Lubin

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.