Monaco vs Toulouse Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Monaco 2-2 Toulouse.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Monaco, 21% draw, 19% Toulouse — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monaco at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monaco vs Toulouse
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. HrádeckýG
- 2VandersonD
- 72Sadibou SanéD
- 15E. DierD
- 20Flávio NazinhoD
- 8L. CamaraM
- 6D. ZakariaM
- 37E. DiopM
- 10A. GolovinM
- 7M. DetourbetM
- 11M. AblineF
- 46A. SoubeirM
- 4J. TezeD
- 9F. BalogunF
- 47S. BenzahraM
- 31Ansu FatiF
- 17S. Idumbo-MuzamboM
- 16P. KöhnG
- 13C. Mawissa ElebiD
- 22M. SalisuD
- 16G. RestesG
- 22R. MessaliD
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 12C. TapéD
- 23C. CásseresM
- 6A. VossahM
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 20C. TengstedtM
- 37Y. AziziM
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 94I. DialloD
- 15A. DønnumM
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 60M. NifloreG
- 19D. OdoguD
- 11S. OppongF
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 14N. SigurM
- 18M. AmougouM
Form going into Monaco vs Toulouse
Monaco
- W2-1Lens18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Strasbourg12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Paris Saint Germain4 September 2026
- W2-0Marseille30 August 2026
Toulouse
- W3-2Le Havre19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lorient12 September 2026
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
What these results say
- Monaco went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Monaco scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Monaco won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Toulouse conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Toulouse failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Toulouse scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 14 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monaco vs Toulouse
- 10 October 2026Monaco 2–2 ToulouseLigue 1
- 25 April 2026Toulouse 2–2 MonacoLigue 1
- 25 October 2025Monaco 1–0 ToulouseLigue 1
- 7 March 2025Toulouse 1–1 MonacoLigue 1
- 7 December 2024Monaco 2–0 ToulouseLigue 1
- 18 February 2024Monaco 1–2 ToulouseLigue 1
Leading scorers: Monaco and Toulouse
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt41
- T. Jørgensen21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.