10 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Lille vs Le Havre Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
Referee: Bastein Dechepy
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Lille 1-0 Le Havre.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Lille, 26% draw, 16% Le Havre — fair odds of 1.72, 3.85 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lille at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lille99%Draw1%Le Havre0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Dilane Bakwaassist: Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi
5'
🔁Tiago Santosout: Maxima Goffi
22'
🔁Gaëtan Perrinout: Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
57'
🔁Olivier Giroudout: Ayase Ueda
57'
61'
Ayumu Seko
63'
Rassoul Ndiaye
69'
🔁Sota Nakamuraout: Rayan Fofana
69'
🔁Josh Majaout: Junior Mwanga
🔁Romain Perraudout: Calvin Verdonk
73'
🔁Ngal'ayel Mukauout: Osame Sahraoui
73'
76'
Djibril Ouziad
82'
🔁Amir Richardsonout: Kaito Mizuta
Maurits Kjaergaard
85'
Maxima Goffi
90+2'

Match stats — Lille vs Le Havre

47%Possession53%
5Shots17
1On target2
4Corners5
1.27xG1.36

Goals against chances

Lille1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth
Le Havre0 from 1.36 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lille 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. ÖzerG
  • 22Tiago SantosD
  • 23T. NianzouD
  • 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
  • 15R. PerraudD
  • 6N. BentalebM
  • 14M. KjærgaardM
  • 7D. BakwaM
  • 17N. MukauM
  • 28G. PerrinM
  • 9O. GiroudF
Substitutes
  • 26I. CossierD
  • 38M. GoffiD
  • 12O. GillG
  • 35S. DiaouneF
  • 21B. AndréM
  • 10H. HaraldssonM
  • 11O. SahraouiF
  • 18A. UedaF
  • 24C. VerdonkD
Coach: Davide Ancelotti
Le Havre 4-2-3-1
  • 93G. GallonG
  • 20D. OuziadD
  • 15A. SekoD
  • 5A. ToubaD
  • 97M. NdiayeD
  • 26S. EbonogM
  • 7A. RichardsonM
  • 30S. NakamuraM
  • 14R. NdiayeM
  • 25M. SamattaM
  • 9J. MajaF
Substitutes
  • 23V. SassoD
  • 6J. MwangaM
  • 78D. MosengoM
  • 17K. MizutaM
  • 44I. BounebM
  • 16A. BodartG
  • 27E. Koffi VinetteF
  • 38R. FofanaF
  • 24G. ZohouriM
Coach: D. Digard

Form going into Lille vs Le Havre

Lille

  • L1-2away to Nice20 September 2026
  • W2-0Estac Troyes13 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Toulouse3 September 2026
  • D2-2Paris Saint Germain28 August 2026

Le Havre

  • L2-3away to Toulouse19 September 2026
  • D0-0Angers12 September 2026
  • L1-2Stade Brestois 295 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Lyon29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lille scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Le Havre did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Le Havre scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Le Havre conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Lille641194+513
18Le Havre602448-42

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lille vs Le Havre

  • 10 October 2026Lille 1–0 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 3 May 2026Lille 1–1 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 30 November 2025Le Havre 0–1 LilleLigue 1
  • 8 February 2025Lille 1–2 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 28 September 2024Le Havre 0–3 LilleLigue 1
  • 17 February 2024Lille 3–0 Le HavreLigue 1

The full Lille vs Le Havre record →

Leading scorers: Lille and Le Havre

Lille

GoalsAssists

  • D. Bakwa21

Le Havre

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.