Saint Etienne vs Rodez Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Saint Etienne 2-0 Rodez.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Saint Etienne, 24% draw, 25% Rodez — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Saint Etienne at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Saint Etienne vs Rodez
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30G. LarsonneurG
- 13João FerreiraD
- 23K. PedroD
- 18S. NairD
- 11B. OldD
- 14Á. CsongvaiM
- 6M. BernauerM
- 20A. BoakyeM
- 10J. BreumM
- 8T. BalloM
- 7I. CardonaF
- 52T. TeillolD
- 32Adam BaallalM
- 46E. DhaouiM
- 31N. El JamaliM
- 40L. LavalléeG
- 17J. DuffusF
- 1Mamour NdiayeG
- 37N. Kasia NkondoD
- 16T. SvetlinM
- 1Q. BraatG
- 28S. Luyambula BiwaD
- 24L. QuenabioD
- 4M. MagninD
- 17L. Vungele VangiD
- 3R. LipinskiD
- 10M. SakaM
- 6J. MendesM
- 29Antonin CartillierM
- 9N. NsingiF
- 7K. NageraF
- 11M. TouhoF
- 30E. CrombezG
- 27M. Essimi AtebaF
- 15E. Jean-LambertD
- 22O. JolyM
- 21K. NsonaF
- 8D. PavlovićM
- 20R. PontiD
- 5M. SyllaD
Form going into Saint Etienne vs Rodez
Saint Etienne
- D2-2away to Metz19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dunkerque12 September 2026
- W3-1Montpellier5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Dijon31 August 2026
Rodez
- L3-4Nancy18 September 2026
- L0-1Grenoble11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Metz5 September 2026
- D2-2PAU28 August 2026
What these results say
- Saint Etienne scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Saint Etienne conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Saint Etienne had three goals or more.
- Rodez did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Rodez conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rodez scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 19 |
| 15 | Rodez | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Saint Etienne vs Rodez
- 10 October 2026Saint Etienne 2–0 RodezLigue 2
- 15 May 2026Saint Etienne 0–0 RodezLigue 2
- 2 May 2026Rodez 2–1 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 16 August 2025Saint Etienne 4–0 RodezLigue 2
- 24 May 2024Saint Etienne 2–0 RodezLigue 2
Leading scorers: Saint Etienne and Rodez
Saint Etienne
GoalsAssists
- A. Boakye53
- T. Ballo52
- I. Cardona44
Rodez
GoalsAssists
- I. Baldé50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.