PAU vs Laval Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: PAU 3-2 Laval.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% PAU, 27% draw, 28% Laval — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PAU at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PAU vs Laval
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. MaubleuG
- 2T. PouillyD
- 29G. PaquiezD
- 23A. BriançonD
- 88A. BambaD
- 97A. AbdallahD
- 6C. FallM
- 21J. BenetM
- 19T. SaettelM
- 7H. BenaliF
- 9B. LeyeF
- 39M. TourraineD
- 27L. GadegbekuM
- 10B. BrahimiM
- 8S. BasseD
- 56Abdoulaye MbayeF
- 22R. BahengD
- 5L. RajotM
- 30E. SallesG
- 18J. SebasF
- 1M. HautboisG
- 23E. MoutonD
- 24S. BaneD
- 18A. LôD
- 35Joseph SambD
- 6S. SannaM
- 21Alessio BeaudouinM
- 22J. GaudinM
- 31M. HoudayerM
- 28A. KantéF
- 20E. ClavreulF
- 11T. DagoF
- 40L. DroyauxG
- 7C. GourichyM
- 5J. MaggiottiM
- 14C. MandoukiM
- 33S. MellierM
- 34A. MoussaouiF
- 3W. BiandaD
- 29M. SidibeM
Form going into PAU vs Laval
PAU
- W2-0Dunkerque18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Montpellier11 September 2026
- D1-1Sochaux4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Rodez28 August 2026
Laval
- D1-1Sochaux18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Dijon11 September 2026
- L1-2RED Star FC 934 September 2026
- L0-3Grenoble28 August 2026
What these results say
- PAU failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- PAU scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- PAU conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Laval did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Laval conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Laval scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | PAU | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 18 | Laval | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PAU vs Laval
- 30 January 2026Laval 0–1 PAULigue 2
- 23 September 2025PAU 1–0 LavalLigue 2
- 31 January 2025PAU 1–1 LavalLigue 2
- 27 September 2024Laval 3–1 PAULigue 2
- 20 April 2024PAU 3–0 LavalLigue 2
- 16 December 2023Laval 1–1 PAULigue 2
Leading scorers: PAU and Laval
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye40
Laval
GoalsAssists
- M. Houdayer30
- E. Clavreul24
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.