9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Nancy vs Guingamp Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Marcel Picot, Nancy
Referee: Gabriel Henry, France
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Nancy 1-0 Guingamp.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Nancy, 27% draw, 31% Guingamp — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Nancy at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nancy3%Draw92%Guingamp5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Walid Bouabdeli
45+2'
55'
Jeovanni Dianganga
Kouroufia Kebe
55'
56'
Amine Hemia
64'
🔁Samir Ben Brahimout: Teddy Andami Averlant
65'
🔁Florent Sanchez Da Silvaout: Amadou Samoura
65'
🔁Brandon Bokanguout: Stanislas Kielt
🔁Nordine Kandilout: Zakaria Fdaouch
65'
Kouroufia Kebe
71'
74'
Tanguy Ahile
🔁Pape Meissa Baout: Logan Ndenbe
74'
🔁Elydjah Mendyout: Jeremy Gelin
75'
75'
🔁Tanguy Ahileout: Tom Ducrocq
77'
Albin Demouchy
🔁Walid Bouabdeliout: Ibrahim cisse
83'
🔁El Hadari Raheriniainaout: Chafik El Hansar
83'
90+4'
Albin Demouchy
⚽Zakaria Fdaouch (pen)
90+6'

Match stats — Nancy vs Guingamp

54%Possession46%
17Shots8
7On target2
4Corners4
2.39xG0.5

Goals against chances

Nancy1 from 2.39 xGless than the chances were worth
Guingamp0 from 0.50 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nancy 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. BasilioG
  • 4N. Fernandez-VelizD
  • 77Y. NahounouD
  • 21E. MendyD
  • 44E. TacafredD
  • 6K. KebeM
  • 8W. BouabdelliM
  • 9I. HousniM
  • 70N. KandilM
  • 12El HadariM
  • 5P. Meïssa BaF
Substitutes
  • 45C. El HansarM
  • 7Z. FdaouchF
  • 17Mamadou Fofana IIM
  • 25J. GélinM
  • 30G. LembetG
  • 22L. NdenbeD
  • 14N. Saint-RufD
  • 11I. CisseF
  • 33Lucas SchneppM
Coach: O. Tanchot
Guingamp 4-4-2
  • 16Adrián OrtoláG
  • 2E. KoffiD
  • 36A. DemouchyD
  • 24J. DiangangaD
  • 5T. OllilaD
  • 20S. Ben BrahimM
  • 4D. LouiserreM
  • 21T. AhileM
  • 8F. Da SilvaM
  • 10A. HemiaF
  • 22B. BokanguF
Substitutes
  • 17A. SamouraF
  • 32I. DiakiteM
  • 1T. BartoucheG
  • 11T. AverlantF
  • 25T. DucrocqM
  • 35N. FondjaD
  • 18S. KieltM
  • 31J. MatondoM
  • 3J. MatumonaD
Coach: S. Ripoll

Form going into Nancy vs Guingamp

Nancy

  • W4-3away to Rodez18 September 2026
  • L1-2Reims11 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Nantes7 September 2026
  • W2-0Dunkerque28 August 2026

Guingamp

  • L1-3RED Star FC 9319 September 2026
  • W2-1Annecy12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Reims5 September 2026
  • D3-3Nantes29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Nancy scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Nancy conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Guingamp scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Guingamp conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Guingamp had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Nancy841397+213
11Guingamp82241013-38

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nancy vs Guingamp

  • 19 January 2026Nancy 0–3 GuingampLigue 2
  • 3 October 2025Guingamp 2–2 NancyLigue 2
  • 19 March 2022Guingamp 3–1 NancyLigue 2
  • 16 October 2021Nancy 2–1 GuingampLigue 2
  • 17 July 2021Nancy 2–2 GuingampFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 January 2021Guingamp 0–0 NancyLigue 2

Leading scorers: Nancy and Guingamp

Nancy

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Guingamp

GoalsAssists

  • B. Bokangu40

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.