Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans.
Before kick-off the model made it 71% Paris Saint Germain, 17% draw, 12% Le Mans — fair odds of 1.41, 5.88 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris Saint Germain at 71% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 39M. SafonovG
- 2A. HakimiD
- 6I. ZabarnyiD
- 21L. HernándezD
- 12L. DigneD
- 87João NevesM
- 4BeraldoM
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 11M. AklioucheF
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 22M. GodtsF
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 14D. DouéF
- 7K. KvaratskheliaF
- 17VitinhaM
- 47Quentin Ndjantou MbitchaF
- 51W. PachoD
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 5MarquinhosD
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryM
- 98N. KocikG
- 15N. BoisséD
- 17S. YohouD
- 5H. VoyerD
- 8A. LaurayM
- 26R. BambaM
- 29L. BretelleM
- 10J. VercruysseM
- 22L. CalodatM
- 13H. DialloF
- 14L. MafoutaF
- 23D. TraoréM
- 18L. BuadésD
- 7B. BrahimiF
- 25D. GuèyeF
- 20W. HarhouzF
- 1E. HatfoutG
- 76Y. LarouciD
- 9A. RabillardF
- 16Raúl TorrenteD
Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
Paris Saint Germain
- W2-1away to Marseille20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Stade Brestois 2913 September 2026
- L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
Le Mans
- W2-1Lorient19 September 2026
- D2-2Lens13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nice5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rennes30 August 2026
What these results say
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Paris Saint Germain had three goals or more.
- Le Mans scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Le Mans conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Le Mans.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
- 10 October 2026Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Le MansLigue 1
- 4 February 2025Le Mans 0–2 Paris Saint GermainCoupe de France
- 14 July 2021Paris Saint Germain 4–0 Le MansFriendlies Clubs
- 18 December 2019Le Mans 1–4 Paris Saint GermainCoupe de la Ligue
Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres40
- Marquinhos30
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.