Lorient vs Paris FC Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lorient 1-0 Paris FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Lorient, 28% draw, 45% Paris FC — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris FC at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lorient vs Paris FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 38Y. MvogoG
- 32N. AdjeiD
- 3M. TalbiD
- 95S. TouréD
- 20D. SyllaM
- 8N. CadiouM
- 2A. GeorgenM
- 43K. KouassiM
- 17J. MakengoM
- 10I. JensenM
- 42M. KoneF
- 62A. AvomM
- 18I. BaldéF
- 33G. BernardeauM
- 19S. FayeF
- 31S. HaribouF
- 21B. KamaraG
- 30S. KuzmićD
- 11T. Le BrisM
- 55N. ObaretinD
- 1K. TrappG
- 17A. CamaraD
- 31S. CherguiD
- 42D. CoppolaD
- 14H. TraoréD
- 20M. LopezM
- 33P. Lees-MelouM
- 10I. KebbalM
- 7P. PagisM
- 15L. KoleoshoM
- 9L. SinayokoF
- 18O. SissokoF
- 23R. MatondoM
- 16O. NkambadioG
- 5M. MbowD
- 3E. MbembaD
- 11J. KrassoF
- 28T. De SmetD
- 6OtávioD
- 8E. ZabiM
Form going into Lorient vs Paris FC
Lorient
- L1-2away to Le Mans19 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lens5 September 2026
- L1-2Estac Troyes29 August 2026
Paris FC
- W2-1Strasbourg19 September 2026
- D0-0Lyon12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Marseille6 September 2026
- W3-0Nice30 August 2026
What these results say
- Lorient scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lorient failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lorient conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Paris FC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Paris FC won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Paris FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lorient vs Paris FC
- 10 October 2026Lorient 1–0 Paris FCLigue 1
- 5 April 2026Lorient 1–1 Paris FCLigue 1
- 4 February 2026Lorient 2–0 Paris FCCoupe de France
- 3 October 2025Paris FC 2–0 LorientLigue 1
- 8 March 2025Paris FC 3–2 LorientLigue 2
- 14 December 2024Lorient 2–0 Paris FCLigue 2
Leading scorers: Lorient and Paris FC
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Paris FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Sinayoko41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.