Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Slask Wroclaw 1-4 Lech Poznan.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Slask Wroclaw, 25% draw, 49% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. NiemczyckiG
- 33E. MatsenkoD
- 5L. BaD
- 44M. MalecD
- 21A. Timossi AnderssonM
- 17K. LinettyM
- 20G. TomasiewiczM
- 8Marc LlinaresM
- 7P. Samiec-TalarM
- 11L. MarjanacF
- 19P. BanaszakF
- 15J. YriarteM
- 2D. SzalaD
- 25M. SzromnikG
- 88A. CiuckaM
- 10M. DembéléF
- 4M. DijakovicD
- 9Ieltsin CamõesF
- 27Jan JurčecD
- 77E. ShabaniM
- 1M. LisG
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 27W. MońkaD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 20R. GumnyM
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 14L. BengtssonM
- 9M. IshakF
- 24F. JagiełłoF
- 5G. BerggrenM
- 11D. HåkansM
- 43A. KozubalM
- 77L. PalmaM
- 33M. PruchniewskiG
- 10P. WålemarkM
- 59T. YegbeD
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 54K. JakóbczykF
Form going into Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
Slask Wroclaw
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow18 September 2026
- L1-2Korona Kielce12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Jagiellonia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa28 August 2026
Lech Poznan
- W5-1Radomiak Radom20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
- W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
- W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
What these results say
- Slask Wroclaw did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lech Poznan won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lech Poznan conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 6 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
- 10 October 2026Slask Wroclaw 1–4 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 29 March 2025Slask Wroclaw 3–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 22 September 2024Lech Poznan 1–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 24 February 2024Lech Poznan 0–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 20 August 2023Slask Wroclaw 3–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 26 February 2023Slask Wroclaw 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Slask Wroclaw and Lech Poznan
Slask Wroclaw
GoalsAssists
- P. Samiec-Talar43
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
- P. Wålemark43
- Pablo Rodríguez43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.