10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica Super Liga prediction & result

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Final score: IMT Novi Beograd 1-0 Radnik Surdulica.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% IMT Novi Beograd, 29% draw, 24% Radnik Surdulica — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts IMT Novi Beograd at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

IMT Novi Beograd97%Draw3%Radnik Surdulica0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Karl Kezy Fabienassist: nikola glisic
21'
23'
Miloš Popović
🔁Karl Kezy Fabienout: Vladimir Radocaj
23'
23'
🔁Uros Filipovicout: Filip Zunic
27'
Filip Zunic
33'
Lazar Radojičić
vasilije novicic
34'
45'
🔁Emmanuel Quarshieout: Luka Jovanović
🔁Aleksandar Sedlarout: Andrej Milanović
54'
🔁Charly Keitaout: Daniel Aghahowa
55'
60'
🔁Milos Spasicout: Djordje Jovanovic
60'
🔁Aleksandar Pejovićout: Darko Stojanović
Moussa Sissako
65'
Josué Tiendrébéogo
69'
76'
🔁Uros Lazicout: Otabek Shukurov
🔁nikola glisicout: François Kamano
80'
🔁Josué Tiendrébéogoout: Ibrahima Kebe
80'

Match stats — IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica

46%Possession54%
13Shots10
6On target3
3Corners7
1.31xG1.08

Goals against chances

IMT Novi Beograd1 from 1.31 xGabout what the chances were worth
Radnik Surdulica0 from 1.08 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

IMT Novi Beograd 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. ČančarevićG
  • 2Julián DelmásD
  • 15A. SedlarD
  • 5M. SissakoD
  • 45Ismael CasasD
  • 18W. TiendrébéogoM
  • 22Vasilije NovicicM
  • 29K. FabienM
  • 19T. CojicM
  • 7N. GlišićM
  • 99C. KeitaF
Substitutes
  • 12Kadir GicicG
  • 40F. KamanoF
  • 14I. KebeM
  • 27V. RadočajM
  • 20D. RadivojevicF
  • 28A. MilanovicD
  • 23D. AkrofiM
  • 37Daniel AghahowaF
  • 24Luka GuticD
Coach: Z. Popović
Radnik Surdulica 4-2-3-1
  • 99S. RandjelovicG
  • 22U. LazićD
  • 6David StojanovićD
  • 37S. AbubakarD
  • 21U. FilipovicD
  • 5M. PopovićM
  • 28A. PejovićM
  • 47Emmanuel QuarshieM
  • 30M. NovakovićM
  • 27M. SpasićM
  • 9V. BogdanovićF
Substitutes
  • 3Luka ŽorićD
  • 18F. ŽunićD
  • 29O. ShukurovM
  • 23Lazar RadojicicG
  • 7D. StojanovićM
  • 25Teo LakićF
  • 92A. KosiahF
  • 88Đ. JovanovićF
  • 34Nikša BlagojevićD
Coach: Zoran Rendulic

Form going into IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica

IMT Novi Beograd

  • D1-1away to Vojvodina19 September 2026
  • L0-1FK Crvena Zvezda13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to OFK Beograd7 September 2026
  • W2-0Mladost Lucani30 August 2026

Radnik Surdulica

  • D4-4FK Partizan19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Zemun14 September 2026
  • D0-0FK Crvena Zvezda10 September 2026
  • W3-1Cukaricki5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for IMT Novi Beograd had two goals or fewer.
  • IMT Novi Beograd failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • IMT Novi Beograd scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Radnik Surdulica went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Radnik Surdulica failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Radnik Surdulica scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3IMT Novi Beograd11533137+618
7Radnik Surdulica113531416-214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica

  • 10 October 2026IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 2 March 2026IMT Novi Beograd 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 29 October 2025Radnik Surdulica 0–1 IMT Novi BeogradCup
  • 26 September 2025Radnik Surdulica 2–0 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
  • 1 May 2024IMT Novi Beograd 5–2 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga

Leading scorers: IMT Novi Beograd and Radnik Surdulica

IMT Novi Beograd

GoalsAssists

  • C. Keita22
  • T. Cojic22

Radnik Surdulica

GoalsAssists

  • V. Bogdanović50

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.