Leyton Orient vs Plymouth League One prediction & result
Final score: Leyton Orient 0-2 Plymouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Leyton Orient, 28% draw, 37% Plymouth — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plymouth at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leyton Orient vs Plymouth
Line-ups
- 1N. BaxterG
- 2F. StevensD
- 5J. OlowuD
- 6W. ForresterD
- 34P. ChineduD
- 20A. GilbertM
- 22Y. AkhamrichM
- 25Charlie Gerard Richard WellensM
- 8I. El MizouniM
- 27T. SpringettM
- 9J. KabiaF
- 10A. ConnollyF
- 17A. DobraF
- 12A. GilchristD
- 33Killian CahillG
- 14I. HaydenM
- 18D. ScarlettF
- 44T. ArchibaldM
- 1M. MahoneyG
- 8J. EdwardsD
- 2M. RossD
- 15A. MitchellD
- 45W. HardingD
- 11R. CurtisM
- 23B. IbrahimM
- 7H. WhiteM
- 14O. IrowM
- 9W. EvansF
- 27A. PeppleF
- 38Seb CampbellM
- 3Jack MackenzieD
- 42Jared RendleF
- 29M. SorinolaD
- 21James StorerG
- 17C. WattsM
- 10X. AmaechiF
Form going into Leyton Orient vs Plymouth
Leyton Orient
- W1-0Stevenage19 September 2026
- L2-3Wycombe12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Luton5 September 2026
Plymouth
- L0-1Burton Albion26 September 2026
- W4-2away to Blackpool19 September 2026
- W3-0Barnsley12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leyton Orient vs Plymouth
- 3 October 2026Leyton Orient 0–2 PlymouthLeague One
- 17 February 2026Leyton Orient 1–3 PlymouthLeague One
- 2 December 2025Leyton Orient 0–1 PlymouthEFL Trophy
- 19 August 2025Plymouth 0–1 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 8 August 2023Plymouth 2–0 Leyton OrientLeague Cup
- 15 September 2020Leyton Orient 3–2 PlymouthLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Leyton Orient and Plymouth
Leyton Orient
GoalsAssists
- J. Kabia42
- Y. Akhamrich32
Plymouth
GoalsAssists
- A. Pepple40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.