ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: ES Metlaoui 1-2 Stade Tunisien.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% ES Metlaoui, 29% draw, 39% Stade Tunisien — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Tunisien at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 27M. Bejaoui
- 15Y. Soltani
- 18O. Hichri
- 20A. Ghrissi
- 34M. Toumi
- 5M. Belghith
- 8E. Kouassi
- 19C. Bodian
- 23Y. Mrad
- 9O. Naffati
- 14B. Nana
- 1S. Yeddes
- 4M. Bouzaabya
- 29A. Tlili
- 10I. Hermes
- 17O. Chebbi
- 28M. Ourimi
- 7B. Hajji
- 11A. Jouini
- 22N. Farhati
- 3A. Saihi
- 19F. Abdi
- 24R. Derbali
- 25S. Sghaier
- 6P. Diop
- 8Y. Saafi
- 34M. Thioune
- 7W. Ouerghemmi
- 9A. N'Diaye
- 20B. Hmidi
- 16A. Dkhili
- 5M. Jelassi
- 12Y. Oumarou
- 17R. Riahi
- 21Y. Toure
- 11F. Ben Youssef
- 14B. Camara
- 18M. Khemissi
- 29Y. Dhaflaoui
Form going into ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien
ES Metlaoui
- L0-1away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane13 September 2026
- W1-0ES Hammam-Sousse6 September 2026
- L1-2away to ES Sahel30 August 2026
- L0-1Club Africain23 August 2026
Stade Tunisien
- W3-1away to ES Hammam-Sousse12 September 2026
- L1-2away to US Monastirienne29 August 2026
- D1-1CS Sfaxien22 August 2026
What these results say
- ES Metlaoui failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- ES Metlaoui conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for ES Metlaoui had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ES Metlaoui | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien
- 11 October 2026ES Metlaoui 1–2 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 1 February 2026ES Metlaoui 0–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 27 August 2025Stade Tunisien 2–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 1 February 2025ES Metlaoui 0–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 26 September 2024Stade Tunisien 1–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 27 May 2023ES Metlaoui 2–1 Stade TunisienLigue 1
Leading scorers: ES Metlaoui and Stade Tunisien
ES Metlaoui
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Bouzaabya10
Stade Tunisien
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.