ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: ES Zarzis 2-0 ES Hammam-Sousse.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% ES Zarzis, 25% draw, 21% ES Hammam-Sousse — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts ES Zarzis at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 22S. Charfi
- 25J. Belkilani
- 29S. Diouf
- 30S. Touj
- 35H. Mounadi
- 17D. Nyengue
- 20M. Smaali
- 26Y. El Kassah
- 7H. Labidi
- 9K. Sowe
- 10M. Jertila
- 32H. Ghanmi
- 3A. M. Yassine
- 28L. Rjili
- 4A. Toure
- 6O. Toure
- 11A. Garreb
- 15A. Oluwaseun
- 18Y. Dhiflaoui
- 27A. Tajourii
- 30M. Hazgui
- 2N. El Beji
- 3G. Abderrazzak
- 5J. Moussa
- 29M. A. Helal
- 20M. Baayou
- 6Figo
- 11M. A. Jarraya
- 13M. Sassi
- 24O. Martin
- 33T. Ben Zitoun
- 32C. Nasreli
- 4O. Tenguiano
- 17R. Ouni
- 15A. Moataz
- 23A. Jaziri
- 34I. Houli
- 8A. Hssine
- 19A. Chaabane
- 22M. Ben Salah
Form going into ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Zarzis
- L0-1away to Club Africain20 September 2026
- L1-2US Monastirienne16 September 2026
- L1-2away to CS Sfaxien29 August 2026
- W1-0Olympique Béja23 August 2026
ES Hammam-Sousse
- L1-3Stade Tunisien12 September 2026
- L0-1away to ES Metlaoui6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Club Africain29 August 2026
- D0-0US Monastirienne22 August 2026
What these results say
- ES Zarzis failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- ES Zarzis scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- ES Zarzis conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- ES Hammam-Sousse did not win any of these 4 matches.
- ES Hammam-Sousse failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- ES Hammam-Sousse conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse
- 11 October 2026ES Zarzis 2–0 ES Hammam-SousseLigue 1
- 29 May 2022ES Zarzis 1–1 Hammam-SousseLigue 1
- 18 May 2022Hammam-Sousse 1–1 ES ZarzisLigue 1
- 22 April 2021Hammam-Sousse 2–1 ES ZarzisLigue 2
- 20 March 2021ES Zarzis 3–1 Hammam-SousseLigue 2
- 14 February 2021Hammam-Sousse 2–1 ES ZarzisLigue 2