Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Zamalek SC 0-2 Al Ahly.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Zamalek SC, 31% draw, 31% Al Ahly — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zamalek SC at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 37Al Mahdi SolimanG
- 4Omar GaberD
- 24Mohamed IsmailD
- 28Mahmoud Hamdi El WenshD
- 3M. BentaygD
- 17Mohamed ShehataM
- 12Ahmed RabieM
- 13Ahmed Abou El FotouhM
- 19Abdalla El SaidM
- 31Ahmed SherifM
- 81Chico BanzaF
- 98Oday DabbaghF
- 20Mostafa El ZenaryD
- 11Ahmed EshoM
- 9Naser MansyF
- 7Hossam AshrafF
- 55M. HamadM
- 18A. KaiedF
- 6Mahmoud GehadM
- 99Mohamed AwadG
- 31Mostafa ShobeirG
- 30Mohamed HanyD
- 3A. DariD
- 2Yassin MareiD
- 24Tawfik MohamedD
- 13Marwan AttiaM
- 12Akram TawfikM
- 25ZizoM
- 22Emam AshourM
- 17A. BencharkiM
- 9S. BenjdidaF
- 10M. BakrarF
- 5Hady ReyadD
- 15Omar El SaeeyM
- 14Hussein El ShahatM
- 1Mohamed El ShenawyG
- 8Ahmed HashemD
- 7Taher MohamedF
- 28Karim FouadD
- 19Mohamed Magdi KafshaM
Form going into Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly
Zamalek SC
- W1-0away to Ghazl El Mehalla16 September 2026
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad8 September 2026
- W2-1Petrojet31 August 2026
- W3-0away to National Bank of Egypt26 August 2026
Al Ahly
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad15 September 2026
- D1-1away to El Mokawloon9 September 2026
- W1-0Smouha SC3 September 2026
- W2-0away to Masr28 August 2026
What these results say
- Zamalek SC won every one of these 4 matches.
- Zamalek SC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Zamalek SC kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al Ahly went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Al Ahly scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Al Ahly had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly
- 11 October 2026Zamalek SC 0–2 Al AhlyPremier League
- 1 May 2026Zamalek SC 0–3 Al AhlyPremier League
- 9 November 2025Al Ahly 2–0 Zamalek SCSuper Cup
- 29 September 2025Al Ahly 2–1 Zamalek SCPremier League
- 11 March 2025Zamalek SC 3–0 Al AhlyPremier League
- 22 February 2025Al Ahly 1–1 Zamalek SCPremier League
Leading scorers: Zamalek SC and Al Ahly
Zamalek SC
GoalsAssists
- Hossam Ashraf20
- Ahmed Sherif20
Al Ahly
GoalsAssists
- Zizo31
- A. Bencharki20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.