Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-2 Amed.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 24% draw, 53% Amed — fair odds of 4.35, 4.17 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amed at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 70I. EgribayatG
- 90M. BaltaciD
- 6D. GoutasD
- 2Thalisson KelvenD
- 88F. UzumM
- 83R. LuisM
- 42O. DiabateM
- 77A. DursunM
- 7T. GouveiaF
- 10F. TongyaF
- 9P. MendesF
- 23G. AkkanG
- 32H. Ogul
- 53E. Cavusoglu
- 15A. CelikD
- 3H. AydarD
- 52G. ErdemM
- 48S. UcanM
- 45P. MartorF
- 12V. OrakpoF
- 40A. LafontG
- 7E. KrasniqiD
- 5L. DellovaD
- 4D. BatesD
- 17U. MerasD
- 22R. RavelosonM
- 8F. SoyalpM
- 10S. BalletM
- 91D. SabaM
- 74M. KhalilM
- 99G. OrbanF
- 27B. BozanG
- 47K. DemirtasD
- 81A. T. BulbulD
- 21M. YesilD
- 3M. AcerD
- 6C. UstundagM
- 93R. LutinM
- 45M. DiagneF
- 97B. KizildemirM
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- L0-4away to Başakşehir19 September 2026
- L1-2Kasımpaşa13 September 2026
- L0-5away to Trabzonspor6 September 2026
- D1-1Erzurumspor FK28 August 2026
Amed
- W3-2Beşiktaş20 September 2026
- W5-0Başakşehir13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Kasımpaşa6 September 2026
- W2-1Trabzonspor31 August 2026
What these results say
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Gençlerbirliği S.K. had three goals or more.
- Amed went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Amed scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Amed had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 8 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed
- 10 October 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–2 AmedSüper Lig
- 4 March 2025Amed 1–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
- 19 October 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1 Amed1. Lig
- 8 January 2017Amed 0–5 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Türkiye Kupası
- 29 December 2016Gençlerbirliği S.K. 6–0 AmedTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Amed
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Amed
GoalsAssists
- G. Orban72
- D. Sabia40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.