Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Alanyaspor 0-0 Erzurumspor FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Alanyaspor, 27% draw, 18% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alanyaspor at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 48Paulo VictorG
- 3N. LimaD
- 5F. AlitiD
- 20F. AksoyD
- 94F. HadergjonajM
- 42G. MakoutaM
- 55B. GezekM
- 11RuanM
- 7I. KayaF
- 19BikoueF
- 16Hwang Ui-JoF
- 23M. BayramG
- 4B. OzyurtD
- 10I. HagiM
- 8E. KeskinM
- 26I. CelikM
- 88Y. OzdemirM
- 22P. FernandesM
- 12M. EliaF
- 17A. UsluogluF
- 1E. TaskiranG
- 53O. OvacikliD
- 4A. GerxhaliuD
- 22M. YumluD
- 18N. MujakicD
- 15G. GiorbelidzeD
- 6B. BaiyeM
- 42E. OwusuM
- 65M. RodriguezM
- 10E. TozluF
- 20M. CardosoF
- 31M. OrbanicG
- 2F. EboseleD
- 3Y. KirtayD
- 23C. BayrakD
- 25O. KaraD
- 8S. AkgunM
- 21E. AcarM
- 99M. FettahogluF
- 19I. DiabateF
Form going into Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
Alanyaspor
- W2-1away to Çorum FK19 September 2026
- D2-2Göztepe12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rizespor7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Eyüpspor30 August 2026
Erzurumspor FK
- W1-0Samsunspor20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş11 September 2026
- W1-0Konyaspor5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 August 2026
What these results say
- Alanyaspor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Alanyaspor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Alanyaspor had three goals or more.
- Erzurumspor FK scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Erzurumspor FK had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
- 10 October 2026Alanyaspor 0–0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 11 May 2021Alanyaspor 2–3 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 21 January 2021Erzurumspor FK 1–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 14 January 2021Alanyaspor 4–1 Erzurumspor FKTürkiye Kupası
- 10 March 2019Alanyaspor 2–1 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 6 October 2018Erzurumspor FK 1–0 AlanyasporSüper Lig
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.