Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Rizespor 0-3 Fenerbahçe.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Rizespor, 23% draw, 53% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 4.17, 4.35 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 75Y. FofanaG
- 54M. PalaD
- 4A. MocsiD
- 93M. SagnanD
- 17Z. ArissD
- 14T. AntalyaliM
- 11A. MebudeM
- 10I. OlawoyinM
- 20Q. LaciM
- 23A. KutucuM
- 9A. SoweF
- 30Z. GorgenG
- 5T. T. SanucD
- 37T. SahinD
- 21S. BakayokoD
- 19U. ErdemD
- 6M. DiakiteM
- 70C. BozdoganM
- 79I. DoicaruF
- 29G. BorrelliF
- 31EdersonG
- 27N. SemedoD
- 37M. SkriniarD
- 15N. AkeD
- 3A. BrownD
- 91N. KanteM
- 6M. GuendouziM
- 11M. GreenwoodM
- 10M. AsensioM
- 7K. AkturkogluM
- 19V. MuriqiF
- 34M. GunokG
- 21K. PeprahD
- 22L. MercanD
- 8M. YandasM
- 5I. YuksekM
- 28B. ElmazM
- 9R. LukakuF
- 17I. KahveciM
- 70O. AydinF
Form going into Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe
Rizespor
- D2-2away to Göztepe20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Eyüpspor12 September 2026
- L0-1Alanyaspor7 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gaziantep FK29 August 2026
Fenerbahçe
- W8-0Eyüpspor20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gaziantep FK14 September 2026
- L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026
What these results say
- Rizespor scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rizespor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fenerbahçe scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fenerbahçe kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe
- 10 October 2026Rizespor 0–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 17 April 2026Fenerbahçe 2–2 RizesporSüper Lig
- 23 November 2025Rizespor 2–5 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 2 February 2025Fenerbahçe 3–2 RizesporSüper Lig
- 25 August 2024Rizespor 0–5 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 17 February 2024Rizespor 1–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Rizespor and Fenerbahçe
Rizespor
GoalsAssists
- E. Bulut21
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- V. Muriqi61
- M. Greenwood42
- O. Aydın23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.