HNK Hajduk Split
vs
NK Varazdin
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 NK Varazdin
The model makes it 48% HNK Hajduk Split, 29% draw, 23% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 1.47, NK Varazdin 0.84.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to HNK Hajduk Split: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- HNK Hajduk Split are top on 19 points from 9 games; NK Varazdin are 2nd on 18 points from 9 games — HNL.
- HNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Dinamo Zagreb.
- NK Varazdin are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- Last 6 meetings: NK Varazdin 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended NK Varazdin 2–1 HNK Hajduk Split.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
HNK Hajduk Split
- W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026
- L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
- W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
- W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
NK Varazdin
- W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11 October 2026
- D0-0NK Osijek19 September 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Gorica14 September 2026
- D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
- W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Varazdin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- NK Varazdin kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Varazdin had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
HNK Hajduk Split
Chance to win the league · 26% today
NK Varazdin
Chance to finish in the top four · 77% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
- 2 August 2026NK Varazdin 2–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 3 May 2026HNK Hajduk Split 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 28 February 2026NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 29 November 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 13 September 2025NK Varazdin 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 18 April 2025NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin
HNK Hajduk Split
GoalsAssists
- M. Šego41
- M. Livaja30
- A. Sanyang21
NK Varazdin
GoalsAssists
- L. Mamić40
- I. Canjuga32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HNK Hajduk Split carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.54 for NK Varazdin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 0.84 for NK Varazdin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.80 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Varazdin rate 0.61 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HNK Hajduk Split a 26.1% chance of the title and NK Varazdin 6.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 0.84 for NK Varazdin. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.17 for NK Varazdin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
HNK Hajduk Split at home · NK Varazdin away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
HNK Hajduk SplitNK Varazdin
HNK Hajduk Split are 1st after 9 HNL matches (between 1st and 8th so far); NK Varazdin are 2nd after 9 (between 1st and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: HNK Hajduk Split 9, NK Varazdin 9.
NK Varazdin score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); HNK Hajduk Split have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
HNK Hajduk Split
- at FC Thun22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 40%
- at Istra 196124 Oct · HNLwin 42%
- vs HNK Gorica31 Oct · HNLwin 61%
- at Lincoln Red Imps FC5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 50%
- at NK Osijek7 Nov · HNLwin 42%
NK Varazdin
- vs NK Slaven Belupo24 Oct · HNLwin 55%
- at HNK Rijeka31 Oct · HNLwin 29%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb7 Nov · HNLwin 31%
- at Rudes21 Nov · HNLwin 46%
- at Istra 196128 Nov · HNLwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.