NK Slaven Belupo
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Slaven Belupo 1–2 Dinamo Zagreb
The model makes it 21% NK Slaven Belupo, 23% draw, 56% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 4.76, 4.35 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: NK Slaven Belupo 1.13, Dinamo Zagreb 2.19.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Dinamo Zagreb are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- NK Slaven Belupo are 7th on 10 points from 9 games; Dinamo Zagreb are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games — HNL.
- NK Slaven Belupo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to HNK Rijeka.
- Dinamo Zagreb have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to HNK Hajduk Split.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Zagreb 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 July 2026, ended Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK Slaven Belupo.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 56% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb
NK Slaven Belupo
- W4-1HNK Rijeka11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rudes18 September 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split13 September 2026
- W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
- L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split10 October 2026
- W3-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb20 September 2026
- L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
- W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Slaven Belupo had three goals or more.
- Dinamo Zagreb scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 10 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
NK Slaven Belupo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
Dinamo Zagreb
Chance to win the league · 64% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 31 July 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 17 May 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 14 March 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–2 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 14 December 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–5 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 28 September 2025Dinamo Zagreb 4–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 10 May 2025Dinamo Zagreb 5–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and Dinamo Zagreb
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski70
Dinamo Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Beljo103
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NK Slaven Belupo carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.78 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 2.19 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.59 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 1.04 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Slaven Belupo a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Zagreb 63.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo against 2.19 for Dinamo Zagreb. NK Slaven Belupo's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.22 for Dinamo Zagreb.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NK Slaven Belupo at home · Dinamo Zagreb away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NK Slaven BelupoDinamo Zagreb
NK Slaven Belupo are 7th after 9 HNL matches (between 7th and 10th so far); Dinamo Zagreb are 2nd after 8 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Slaven Belupo 9, Dinamo Zagreb 8.
NK Slaven Belupo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Dinamo Zagreb have let in 1 there.
Dinamo Zagreb score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); NK Slaven Belupo have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
NK Slaven Belupo
- at NK Varazdin24 Oct · HNLwin 19%
- vs Istra 196131 Oct · HNLwin 39%
- at HNK Gorica7 Nov · HNLwin 30%
- vs NK Osijek21 Nov · HNLwin 40%
- at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb28 Nov · HNLwin 27%
Dinamo Zagreb
- vs NEC Nijmegen22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 48%
- vs HNK Rijeka24 Oct · HNLwin 60%
- at Rudes31 Oct · HNLwin 65%
- at Sunderland5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.