FC Copenhagen
vs
Aarhus
Superliga prediction
Our model says: FC Copenhagen 2–1 Aarhus
The model makes it 53% FC Copenhagen, 23% draw, 24% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: FC Copenhagen 2.18, Aarhus 1.29.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to FC Copenhagen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Copenhagen are top on 24 points from 10 games; Aarhus are 10th on 8 points from 10 games — Superliga.
- FC Copenhagen have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FC Midtjylland.
- Aarhus have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sonderjyske.
- Last 6 meetings: Aarhus 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Aarhus 4–0 FC Copenhagen.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Copenhagen at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus
FC Copenhagen
- L1-2away to FC Midtjylland11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Brondby20 September 2026
- W2-0AC Horsens11 September 2026
- W5-0away to Odense6 September 2026
- W2-0FC Nordsjaelland3 September 2026
Aarhus
- W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026
- D2-2away to AC Horsens20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026
- D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
- L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Copenhagen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Copenhagen won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Copenhagen kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 24 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Copenhagen
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 52% today
Aarhus
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
From our Superliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus
- 1 February 2026Aarhus 4–0 FC CopenhagenFriendlies Clubs
- 30 November 2025Aarhus 2–0 FC CopenhagenSuperliga
- 8 August 2025FC Copenhagen 2–3 AarhusSuperliga
- 27 April 2025Aarhus 1–3 FC CopenhagenSuperliga
- 21 April 2025FC Copenhagen 3–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 8 February 2025Aarhus 4–3 FC CopenhagenFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: FC Copenhagen and Aarhus
FC Copenhagen
GoalsAssists
- M. Elyounoussi72
- B. Meling41
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra40
- C. McCowatt32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Copenhagen carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.64 for Aarhus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for FC Copenhagen and 1.29 for Aarhus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Copenhagen rate 1.03 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aarhus rate 0.80 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Copenhagen a 52.1% chance of the title and Aarhus 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Copenhagen the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for FC Copenhagen against 1.29 for Aarhus. FC Copenhagen's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.21 for Aarhus.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Copenhagen at home · Aarhus away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC CopenhagenAarhus
FC Copenhagen are 1st after 10 Superliga matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Aarhus are 10th after 10 (between 2nd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: FC Copenhagen 10, Aarhus 10.
FC Copenhagen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Aarhus have let in 2 there.
Aarhus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC Copenhagen have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Copenhagen
- at FK Crvena Zvezda22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 28%
- vs Odense26 Oct · Superligawin 63%
- at Aarhus Fremad29 Oct · DBU Pokalenwin 59%
- at Sonderjyske2 Nov · Superligawin 60%
- vs FC Iberia 19995 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 75%
Aarhus
- vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 69%
- vs Viborg25 Oct · Superligawin 39%
- at Brondby1 Nov · Superligawin 36%
- vs SC Braga5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
- vs AC Horsens8 Nov · Superligawin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.