Watford vs Burnley Championship prediction & result
Final score: Watford 0-4 Burnley.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Watford, 29% draw, 44% Burnley — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Watford vs Burnley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. RavagliaG
- 23O. TraoréD
- 6M. PollockD
- 29Branimir MlačićD
- 3S. CoulibalyD
- 39E. KayembeM
- 5H. KyprianouM
- 20M. DoumbiaM
- 17Iker BravoM
- 21Amin NabizadaM
- 9L. KjerrumgaardF
- 11R. VataF
- 33J. ZemuraD
- 26D. BachmannG
- 10M. BoaduF
- 16M. BolaD
- 4K. KebenD
- 7O. MaammaF
- 45S. MavididiF
- 22M. PayeroM
- 37G. CoudertG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 44IgorD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 29J. LaurentM
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 7J. Bruun LarsenM
- 5R. HatateM
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 11Z. AmdouniF
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 18H. EkdalD
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 14C. RobertsD
- 12D. SatpaevF
- 22O. SonneD
- 9J. VardyF
- 1M. WeißG
- 27A. BrojaF
Form going into Watford vs Burnley
Watford
- L0-1away to Bristol City18 September 2026
- L1-2Stoke City12 September 2026
- W2-1Preston8 September 2026
Burnley
- D1-1Derby19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Watford vs Burnley
- 10 October 2026Watford 0–4 BurnleyChampionship
- 18 April 2025Watford 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
- 21 December 2024Burnley 2–1 WatfordChampionship
- 14 February 2023Burnley 1–1 WatfordChampionship
- 12 August 2022Watford 1–0 BurnleyChampionship
- 30 April 2022Watford 1–2 BurnleyPremier League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.