Cheltenham vs Salford City League Two prediction & result
Final score: Cheltenham 0-2 Salford City.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Cheltenham, 27% draw, 37% Salford City — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Salford City at 37% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cheltenham vs Salford City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23W. StanwayG
- 6J. WilsonD
- 5R. CundyD
- 25P. SweeneyD
- 3J. TomkinsonD
- 7B. StevensonM
- 19J. EvansM
- 33F. WillcoxM
- 26J. ShipleyM
- 14R. BroomM
- 18A. WeimannF
- 10G. MillerF
- 31M. DialloG
- 1J. DayG
- 11J. BickerstaffF
- 21G. NurseD
- 9K. OtchereF
- 1W. NorrisG
- 4W. AimsonD
- 17D. ScarrD
- 24T. AllenD
- 43L. MolyneuxM
- 16E. BondsM
- 8J. GrantM
- 44B. Sarpong-WireduM
- 14A. OdohM
- 19R. GraydonF
- 9M. LangstaffF
- 2N. AsiimweD
- 26L. BurgeG
- 18M. ButcherM
- 21K. CesayM
- 29L. GarbuttD
- 22A. OluwoD
- 23D. UdohF
Form going into Cheltenham vs Salford City
Cheltenham
- L0-2away to Accrington Stanley3 October 2026
- W2-1Chesterfield26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Colchester19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Crawley Town12 September 2026
Salford City
- W1-0Fleetwood Town3 October 2026
- W4-1away to Oldham26 September 2026
- W1-0Swindon Town19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Rotherham12 September 2026
What these results say
- Cheltenham conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cheltenham scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Cheltenham.
- Salford City went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Salford City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Salford City won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 15 |
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cheltenham vs Salford City
- 21 February 2026Cheltenham 3–2 Salford CityLeague Two
- 29 August 2025Salford City 1–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 25 January 2025Cheltenham 2–1 Salford CityLeague Two
- 30 November 2024Salford City 2–0 CheltenhamFA Cup
- 14 September 2024Salford City 2–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 10 January 2023Cheltenham 3–1 Salford CityEFL Trophy
Leading scorers: Cheltenham and Salford City
Cheltenham
GoalsAssists
- C. McCann70
- A. Weimann42
- J. Evans32
Salford City
GoalsAssists
- J. Powell32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.