Newport County vs Colchester League Two prediction & result
Final score: Newport County 1-0 Colchester.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Newport County, 28% draw, 37% Colchester — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colchester at 37% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newport County vs Colchester
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. WrightG
- 22C. NormanD
- 5L. JenkinsD
- 4K. CameronD
- 16M. JacobD
- 24M. Dibley-DiasM
- 6C. BrennanM
- 23M. Adu-PokuM
- 10H. BigginsM
- 9S. GwengweM
- 27C. DoidgeF
- 19G. GarnerF
- 18A. LewisD
- 33S. MacDonaldG
- 21T. NyakuhwaF
- 34D. SassiD
- 8M. SmithM
- 20Y. BambaF
- 22T. Lo-TutalaG
- 44S. KuffourD
- 5J. TuckerD
- 6P. DigbyD
- 3E. IandoloD
- 26J. WilliamsM
- 10J. PayneM
- 12M. SesayM
- 7H. AndersonM
- 15B. LubalaM
- 27O. ThornF
- 2R. HuntD
- 9B. IhionvienF
- 24F. TerryD
- 11L. ChiwomeF
- 47R. HarveyM
- 31Oscar RobertsG
- 39K. ConnellyF
Form going into Newport County vs Colchester
Newport County
- D0-0away to Gillingham3 October 2026
- W2-1Grimsby26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Accrington Stanley19 September 2026
- D1-1Fleetwood Town12 September 2026
Colchester
- D2-2away to Shrewsbury26 September 2026
- D1-1Cheltenham19 September 2026
- D1-1Crewe12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swindon Town5 September 2026
What these results say
- Newport County went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Newport County failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Newport County had two goals or fewer.
- Colchester did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Colchester scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Colchester conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newport County vs Colchester
- 7 March 2026Newport County 1–2 ColchesterLeague Two
- 20 December 2025Colchester 4–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 12 April 2025Newport County 0–2 ColchesterLeague Two
- 14 December 2024Colchester 0–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 29 March 2024Colchester 2–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 3 October 2023Newport County 2–1 ColchesterLeague Two
Leading scorers: Newport County and Colchester
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
Colchester
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.