Port Vale vs Grimsby League Two prediction & result
Final score: Port Vale 1-0 Grimsby.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Port Vale, 29% draw, 35% Grimsby — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Port Vale at 36% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Port Vale vs Grimsby
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20M. MarošiG
- 25C. HumphreysD
- 4J. MoonD
- 5C. HallD
- 6J. Lawrence-GabrielM
- 10K. DempseyM
- 33G. HallM
- 8B. GarrityM
- 3J. HeadleyM
- 11O. HernándezF
- 36M. WattersF
- 27M. AsamoahF
- 7G. ByersM
- 2K. JohnD
- 1J. SmithG
- 19B. WaineF
- 38R. WaltersM
- 14O. LynchF
- 31C. PymG
- 5H. RodgersD
- 2M. KacurriD
- 17C. McJannetD
- 3J. SweeneyD
- 15G. TuriM
- 14J. AmaluzorM
- 4K. GreenM
- 28F. CartwrightM
- 30C. VernamM
- 39A. CookF
- 1H. CartwrightG
- 8Cian DoyleM
- 10S. FinchF
- 9Iwan MorganF
- 26E. PrutiD
- 7J. WalkerF
- 11Ryley ReynoldsM
Form going into Port Vale vs Grimsby
Port Vale
- L0-2away to Walsall19 September 2026
- W1-0Exeter City12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swindon Town1 September 2026
Grimsby
- L1-2Shrewsbury3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Newport County26 September 2026
- W2-0Crawley Town19 September 2026
- W2-0Bristol Rovers12 September 2026
What these results say
- Port Vale failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Port Vale conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Port Vale had two goals or fewer.
- Grimsby scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Port Vale vs Grimsby
- 21 April 2025Port Vale 2–2 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 29 December 2024Grimsby 3–0 Port ValeLeague Two
- 21 July 2023Port Vale 1–1 GrimsbyFriendlies Clubs
- 1 May 2021Grimsby 1–0 Port ValeLeague Two
- 9 January 2021Port Vale 3–0 GrimsbyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Port Vale and Grimsby
Port Vale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Grimsby
GoalsAssists
- K. Green32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.