Rotherham vs Gillingham League Two prediction & result
Final score: Rotherham 1-4 Gillingham.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Rotherham, 28% draw, 27% Gillingham — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rotherham at 45% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rotherham vs Gillingham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. EyestoneG
- 12D. HallD
- 27D. IorfaD
- 14Sonny AljofreeD
- 5K. NgwenyaD
- 6O. AshleyM
- 28Brandon Ashley CoverM
- 4J. AusterfieldM
- 8K. SpenceM
- 24J. BuyabuM
- 10P. MullinF
- 2J. RaffertyD
- 9T. BradshawF
- 1T. CannG
- 26H. DouglasM
- 15Jayce FitzgeraldM
- 22Jamie JellisM
- 23A. NemaneF
- 1O. WrightG
- 5A. SmithD
- 19O. BecklesD
- 26L. DobbsD
- 22N. FreemanM
- 8A. LittleM
- 14R. McKenzieM
- 16J. BrophyM
- 24H. WaldockF
- 11L. SillahF
- 10Ronan HaleF
- 23B. DackM
- 6E. ColemanM
- 17C. AntwiM
- 20J. DaleyD
- 39T. EavesF
- 18S. KendallM
- 40R. LuthraG
Form going into Rotherham vs Gillingham
Rotherham
- L0-1away to Exeter City3 October 2026
- D1-1Crewe26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Northampton19 September 2026
- D3-3Salford City12 September 2026
Gillingham
- D0-0Newport County3 October 2026
- L0-3away to York26 September 2026
- W3-0Bristol Rovers19 September 2026
- W2-0Tranmere12 September 2026
What these results say
- Rotherham failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rotherham scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rotherham conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gillingham kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rotherham vs Gillingham
- 30 April 2022Gillingham 0–2 RotherhamLeague One
- 7 December 2021Rotherham 5–1 GillinghamLeague One
- 2 November 2019Gillingham 0–3 RotherhamLeague One
- 17 April 2018Gillingham 0–1 RotherhamLeague One
- 28 October 2017Rotherham 1–3 GillinghamLeague One
Leading scorers: Rotherham and Gillingham
Rotherham
GoalsAssists
- P. Mullin50
Gillingham
GoalsAssists
- Ronan Hale41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.