Oldham vs Accrington Stanley League Two prediction & result
Final score: Oldham 0-0 Accrington Stanley.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Oldham, 27% draw, 27% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oldham at 46% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oldham vs Accrington Stanley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. HudsonG
- 24L. TempleD
- 5D. DanielsD
- 6E. MontheD
- 2G. Scott-MorrissM
- 4T. PettM
- 8O. NorburnM
- 3J. RobsonM
- 7K. Appiah-ForsonM
- 27O. HammondM
- 10C. KavanaghF
- 15K. DrummondF
- 17F. FawunmiF
- 9M. Fondop-TalumF
- 26Kai PayneM
- 16W. SuttonD
- 22Wilson WilsonG
- 14N. ChilversM
- 1L. MouldenG
- 17D. MatthewsD
- 28S. ConneelyD
- 22J. AndersonD
- 2D. LoveM
- 38C. O'BrienM
- 10Alex HendersonM
- 14Stefan MolsM
- 33D. TutondaM
- 30C. WarrenF
- 23T. WaltonF
- 16Aidan BorlandM
- 27J. CatesbyF
- 8C. GrantM
- 21J. RogersonG
- 25J. SmithD
- 3Oliver SmithD
- 20C. BrownF
Form going into Oldham vs Accrington Stanley
Oldham
- L1-4Salford City26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Rochdale19 September 2026
- L1-2Chesterfield12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tranmere5 September 2026
Accrington Stanley
- W2-0Cheltenham3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Swindon Town26 September 2026
- D0-0Newport County19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnet12 September 2026
What these results say
- Oldham did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Oldham conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Accrington Stanley failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Accrington Stanley scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Accrington Stanley had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Oldham vs Accrington Stanley
- 2 May 2026Oldham 3–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 29 November 2025Accrington Stanley 1–0 OldhamLeague Two
- 5 August 2025Accrington Stanley 3–1 OldhamLeague Cup
- 24 August 2021Oldham 0–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Cup
- 8 October 2019Oldham 0–3 Accrington StanleyEFL Trophy
Leading scorers: Oldham and Accrington Stanley
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh43
Accrington Stanley
GoalsAssists
- C. Caton50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.