Fleetwood Town vs Walsall League Two prediction & result
Final score: Fleetwood Town 1-1 Walsall.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Fleetwood Town, 30% draw, 33% Walsall — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fleetwood Town at 37% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fleetwood Town vs Walsall
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. LynchG
- 26S. RooneyD
- 6R. BennettD
- 5F. PotterD
- 4H. NealM
- 14L. McCannM
- 10M. HelmM
- 15A. MurphyM
- 24Jake Thomas BattyM
- 17C. EvansF
- 19R. CoughlanF
- 29R. CirinoD
- 9W. DaviesF
- 36J. DempseyD
- 16Conor HaugheyD
- 20A. Loupalo-BiF
- 22J. PradicG
- 28J. RobertsonM
- 1J. WardG
- 25D. SkuraD
- 4J. ConnollyD
- 26R. LeakD
- 3M. HancockD
- 15Isaac MooreM
- 6S. SpranglerM
- 10L. SimperM
- 9A. DallasM
- 11R. SmithM
- 19A. PressleyF
- 37A. AdomahF
- 22E. AhuiD
- 17Courtney ClarkeM
- 8C. CrewM
- 29J. FurlongD
- 7Taione Richard Evumena SodjeF
- 31Tom WoosterG
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Walsall
Fleetwood Town
- L0-1away to Salford City3 October 2026
- L1-2Rochdale26 September 2026
- L1-3away to Barnet19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County12 September 2026
Walsall
- D1-1away to Tranmere26 September 2026
- W2-0Port Vale19 September 2026
- D0-0Rochdale12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Exeter City5 September 2026
What these results say
- Fleetwood Town did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fleetwood Town scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Walsall went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Walsall had two goals or fewer.
- Walsall failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Walsall
- 3 March 2026Walsall 0–1 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 13 September 2025Fleetwood Town 1–1 WalsallLeague Two
- 28 January 2025Fleetwood Town 2–0 WalsallLeague Two
- 1 October 2024Walsall 2–6 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 9 March 2019Walsall 2–0 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 17 November 2018Fleetwood Town 0–0 WalsallLeague One
Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Walsall
Fleetwood Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Walsall
GoalsAssists
- A. Pressley50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.