Crawley Town vs Chesterfield League Two prediction & result
Final score: Crawley Town 2-2 Chesterfield.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Crawley Town, 27% draw, 47% Chesterfield — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chesterfield at 47% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1V. MannoneG
- 24A. OdimayoD
- 6P. FarquharsonD
- 5C. BarkerD
- 12L. RichardsD
- 22A. AdeyemoM
- 20J. ArthursM
- 30Kai JenningsM
- 10S. Duke-McKennaM
- 27Dylan MorganF
- 9D. OrsiF
- 14G. Di BiaseF
- 2K. GordonM
- 17Osman KamaraF
- 13N. MichalskiG
- 16J. RussellD
- 28Nathan TinsdaleM
- 8L. WatsonM
- 23R. BootG
- 33R. HuttonD
- 5K. McFadzeanD
- 6J. SimpsonD
- 19L. GordonD
- 20G. McEachranM
- 8R. StirkM
- 24D. MarkandayM
- 18L. MarshM
- 31J. RandallM
- 10L. BonisF
- 37J. KoromaF
- 28W. GriggF
- 26J. EcclestonD
- 27K. DyerM
- 4T. NaylorM
- 7L. MandevilleM
- 46T. PearceD
Form going into Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
Crawley Town
- L0-2away to Grimsby19 September 2026
- L1-3Cheltenham12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Accrington Stanley5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Northampton1 September 2026
Chesterfield
- W4-2Tranmere3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Cheltenham26 September 2026
- W2-0York19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Oldham12 September 2026
What these results say
- Crawley Town did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Crawley Town conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Crawley Town scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chesterfield scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Chesterfield won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chesterfield conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 5 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
- 21 February 2026Crawley Town 1–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 30 August 2025Chesterfield 2–2 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 3 February 2018Chesterfield 1–2 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 17 October 2017Crawley Town 0–2 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 27 January 2015Chesterfield 3–0 Crawley TownLeague One
- 29 November 2014Crawley Town 1–1 ChesterfieldLeague One
Leading scorers: Crawley Town and Chesterfield
Crawley Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Chesterfield
GoalsAssists
- L. Marsh51
- L. Bonis42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.