West Brom vs Birmingham Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Brom 0-1 Birmingham.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% West Brom, 31% draw, 31% Birmingham — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Brom at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Brom vs Birmingham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 18B. PereiraD
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 2C. MephamD
- 4C. StylesD
- 20R. NzingoulaM
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 7F. MyhreM
- 15Tobias Christopher CollyerM
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 11J. MorganF
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 23T. BanyF
- 6G. CampbellD
- 35M. CrowtherM
- 13M. IngramG
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 21I. PriceM
- 9B. StewartF
- 22C. TownsendD
- 1J. BeadleG
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 4C. KlarerD
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 14J. SolisM
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 28J. StansfieldM
- 17L. MillarM
- 9A. PriskeF
- 23D. FryD
- 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
- 10D. GrayF
- 2E. LairdD
- 16P. RobertsM
- 32L. VázquezF
- 33M. DuckschF
- 18M. BirdM
- 21R. AllsopG
Form going into West Brom vs Birmingham
West Brom
- L0-1away to Wolves20 September 2026
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Derby9 September 2026
Birmingham
- D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 17 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: West Brom vs Birmingham
- 10 October 2026West Brom 0–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 10 February 2026Birmingham 0–0 West BromChampionship
- 26 November 2025West Brom 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 3 August 2024Birmingham 4–1 West BromFriendlies Clubs
- 3 February 2024West Brom 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 6 October 2023Birmingham 3–1 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: West Brom and Birmingham
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- J. Morgan33
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.