Shrewsbury vs Exeter City League Two prediction & result
Final score: Shrewsbury 0-1 Exeter City.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Shrewsbury, 29% draw, 41% Exeter City — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Exeter City at 41% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shrewsbury vs Exeter City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1William Michael BrookG
- 6S. StubbsD
- 5W. BoyleD
- 3J. RuffelsD
- 2L. HooleM
- 10T. SangM
- 7J. Turner-CookeM
- 11K. BerkoeM
- 18K. M. BrownM
- 9G. LloydF
- 8Isaac Andrew FletcherF
- 32Cameron GregoryG
- 17Arkelle Nicholas Cecil Jude-BoydD
- 21will grayM
- 27J. GbodeF
- 13J. DavisonF
- 23I. LeeD
- 24L. SousaD
- 1J. BycroftG
- 2L. SamuelD
- 6J. TaylorD
- 5J. FitzwaterD
- 3L. WoodhouseD
- 31J. Doyle-HayesM
- 16C. CumminsM
- 25A. ScullyM
- 8T. PerryM
- 20George BirchM
- 10J. GordonF
- 19S. CoxF
- 24V. HarperD
- 40E. JamesD
- 14H. KiteM
- 18Liam OakesD
- 22Frankie PhillipsG
- 23Ethan SutherlandD
Form going into Shrewsbury vs Exeter City
Shrewsbury
- W2-1away to Grimsby3 October 2026
- D2-2Colchester26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Crewe19 September 2026
- W2-0Northampton12 September 2026
Exeter City
- W1-0Rotherham3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol Rovers26 September 2026
- D0-0Tranmere19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale12 September 2026
What these results say
- Shrewsbury went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Shrewsbury scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Shrewsbury conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Exeter City had two goals or fewer.
- Exeter City failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Exeter City failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shrewsbury vs Exeter City
- 8 March 2025Exeter City 2–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
- 17 October 2024Shrewsbury 0–2 Exeter CityLeague One
- 12 March 2024Shrewsbury 0–3 Exeter CityLeague One
- 28 November 2023Exeter City 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
- 14 February 2023Exeter City 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
- 13 September 2022Shrewsbury 3–2 Exeter CityLeague One
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.