York vs Northampton League Two prediction & result
Final score: York 1-1 Northampton.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% York, 25% draw, 23% Northampton — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts York at 52% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — York vs Northampton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alfie Shane McNallyG
- 2R. FallowfieldD
- 5Z. JohnsonD
- 3M. KitchingD
- 23J. FelixM
- 8A. HuntM
- 28O. BanksM
- 12H. BoyesM
- 7J. GreyM
- 30A. NewbyM
- 10O. PearceF
- 32J. HuntD
- 15J. KingD
- 11F. MaguireM
- 18J. MalcolmF
- 6A. PalmerD
- 16A. ReadM
- 31G. Sykes-KenworthyG
- 1Z. JeacockG
- 44J. DonacienD
- 6E. MooreD
- 5J. GuthrieD
- 22Joshua Alan PowellD
- 16J. WormleightonM
- 8L. EvansM
- 24C. Lemonheigh-EvansM
- 4J. O'Brien-WhitmarshM
- 19O. DaleF
- 9Matthew WarhurstF
- 17N. OpokuF
- 3J. MaxwellD
- 31J. DadgeG
- 10E. ListF
- 7S. HoskinsF
- 14T. FornahM
- 35M. DycheD
Form going into York vs Northampton
York
- W3-0Gillingham26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Chesterfield19 September 2026
- W4-0Swindon Town12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Crewe5 September 2026
Northampton
- L0-1Rotherham19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shrewsbury12 September 2026
- W1-0Newport County5 September 2026
- D1-1Crawley Town1 September 2026
What these results say
- York scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
- Northampton failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Northampton conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 15 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: York vs Northampton
- 23 February 2016York 1–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 6 February 2016Northampton 2–0 YorkLeague Two
- 21 February 2015Northampton 3–0 YorkLeague Two
- 16 August 2014York 1–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 11 January 2014Northampton 0–2 YorkLeague Two
- 3 August 2013York 1–0 NorthamptonLeague Two
Leading scorers: York and Northampton
York
GoalsAssists
- A. Newby61
- O. Pearce44
Northampton
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.