Swindon Town vs Crewe League Two prediction & result
Final score: Swindon Town 0-1 Crewe.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Swindon Town, 29% draw, 36% Crewe — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Crewe at 36% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Swindon Town vs Crewe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. RipleyG
- 2M. ClarkD
- 5S. NegruD
- 16S. InwoodD
- 26D. ButlerD
- 27A. MundaM
- 25J. ThomsonM
- 8O. ClarkeM
- 7T. NicholsF
- 23A. DrinanF
- 29A. HackfordF
- 6J. BallM
- 14D. ButterworthM
- 34B. KirkmanD
- 19J. SnowdonM
- 24M. Virtue-ThickM
- 39L. MillardF
- 12Lewis Moore WardG
- 1T. BoothG
- 2L. BillingtonD
- 6L. OffordD
- 12J. StephensonD
- 4Kyle UreD
- 19O. LuntM
- 10J. WhiteM
- 14J. GibsonM
- 11J. TabinerM
- 9J. MarchM
- 29A. ThibautF
- 17M. HolíčekM
- 13I. LawlorG
- 23C. McNeillF
- 32L. MooreM
- 8C. ThomasM
- 30Stan DanceyD
- 20Calum AgiusF
Form going into Swindon Town vs Crewe
Swindon Town
- L0-1away to Rochdale3 October 2026
- D1-1Accrington Stanley26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City19 September 2026
- L0-4away to York12 September 2026
Crewe
- W3-1Bristol Rovers3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rotherham26 September 2026
- D1-1Shrewsbury19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Colchester12 September 2026
What these results say
- Swindon Town did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Swindon Town conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Swindon Town failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Crewe went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Crewe scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Crewe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Crewe
- 21 February 2026Swindon Town 1–2 CreweLeague Two
- 30 August 2025Crewe 0–3 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 11 January 2025Swindon Town 0–0 CreweLeague Two
- 24 August 2024Crewe 0–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 13 January 2024Crewe 2–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 12 August 2023Swindon Town 2–2 CreweLeague Two
Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Crewe
Swindon Town
GoalsAssists
- A. Drinan50
Crewe
GoalsAssists
- J. March32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.