Tranmere vs Rochdale League Two prediction & result
Final score: Tranmere 1-1 Rochdale.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Tranmere, 28% draw, 36% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tranmere at 36% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tranmere vs Rochdale
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12H. MaleG
- 2J. SeniorD
- 5N. SmithD
- 30G. NevettD
- 3J. SlaterD
- 6W. VaulksM
- 11T. ConlonM
- 24David KamaraM
- 10T. InceM
- 7Charlie Jay WhitakerM
- 29D. JonesF
- 44R. WatsonM
- 19C. Baker-RichardsonF
- 16B. FaulknerD
- 9J. IronsideF
- 1L. McGeeG
- 22L. O'ConnorD
- 20Charlie VeeversM
- 1Nils RammingG
- 13O. Adebayo-RowlingD
- 44A. FlintD
- 3Kaiden WilsonD
- 2C. TaskerD
- 8H. GilmourM
- 17B. AdeekoM
- 7C. HayesM
- 21Kane TaylorM
- 45G. MiddletonM
- 39D. BrownF
- 14E. FrancisM
- 9E. DieseruvweF
- 33S. BeckwithD
- 19L. HannantM
- 26S. SherringD
- 11Z. Silcott-DuberryF
- 20Sam William John WallerG
Form going into Tranmere vs Rochdale
Tranmere
- L2-4away to Chesterfield3 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Exeter City19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Gillingham12 September 2026
Rochdale
- W1-0Swindon Town3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fleetwood Town26 September 2026
- W2-0Oldham19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Walsall12 September 2026
What these results say
- Tranmere did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Tranmere conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Tranmere had two goals or fewer.
- Rochdale went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Rochdale won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rochdale scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tranmere vs Rochdale
- 1 August 2026Tranmere 2–2 RochdaleLeague Cup
- 18 July 2023Tranmere 0–2 RochdaleFriendlies Clubs
- 18 April 2023Rochdale 2–2 TranmereLeague Two
- 25 October 2022Tranmere 1–1 RochdaleLeague Two
- 15 January 2022Tranmere 2–0 RochdaleLeague Two
- 11 September 2021Rochdale 1–0 TranmereLeague Two
Leading scorers: Tranmere and Rochdale
Tranmere
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Rochdale
GoalsAssists
- D. Brown32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.