9 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü 1. Lig prediction & result

Bodrum
Referee: Yusuf Adnan Kendirciler, Türkiye
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Bodrum FK 0-2 Keçiörengücü.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Bodrum FK, 29% draw, 30% Keçiörengücü — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bodrum FK at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bodrum FK0%Draw1%Keçiörengücü99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
E. Develi
25'
⚽Odise Roshiassist: Francis Ezeh
E. Arslan
33'
Mustafa Erdilman
43'
🔁E. Arslanout: Florian Loshaj
45'
53'
⚽Alcídio Raiceassist: Francis Ezeh
🔁Berkay Aslanout: J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
58'
🔁Mustafa Erdilmanout: Ruben Providence
58'
Sefer Yılmaz
60'
61'
🔁Alcídio Raiceout: Jefferson
75'
🔁Francis Ezehout: Moryke Fofana
75'
🔁Odise Roshiout: Herculano·Nabian
🔁Ege Bilselout: Kerem Kayaarası
77'
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
85'
86'
🔁E. Develiout: Halil Can Ayan
86'
🔁Mame Biram Dioufout: Oguzhan Ayaydin
🔁Yusuf Sertkayaout: Boran Baskan
89'
90+1'
Herculano·Nabian

Match stats — Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü

58%Possession42%
17Shots16
5On target6
7Corners1
1.15xG1.24

Goals against chances

Bodrum FK0 from 1.15 xGless than the chances were worth
Keçiörengücü2 from 1.24 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bodrum FK 4-2-3-1
  • 32B. TosunG
  • 77B. YavuzayD
  • 5A. AjetiD
  • 34A. AytemurD
  • 75E. KaplanD
  • 20Yusuf SertkayaM
  • 8M. ErdilmanM
  • 11E. BilselM
  • 17E. ArslanM
  • 19Berkay AslanM
  • 26V. AboubakarF
Substitutes
  • 54R. AdıyamanG
  • 23F. ApaydınD
  • 82B. BaşkanM
  • 9Kerem KayaarasiF
  • 14F. LoshajM
  • 80R. ProvidenceF
  • 68I. TarimD
  • 4A. YılmazD
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
Coach: Burhan Eşer
Keçiörengücü 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. ErdoğanG
  • 12M. KeskinD
  • 3Wellington NascimentoD
  • 4A. ÇelikD
  • 37D. AksuD
  • 8I. KaraogulM
  • 6E. DeveliM
  • 7O. RoshiM
  • 20Alcídio RaiceM
  • 21F. EzehM
  • 55M. DioufF
Substitutes
  • 5O. ÇalışkanD
  • 19Enes YilmazM
  • 18E. SatılmışG
  • 10JeffersonM
  • 33S. LuşD
  • 77M. FofanaF
  • 45Herculano NabianF
  • 2Y. BahadırD
  • 16Oğuzhan AyaydınM
Coach: O. Korkmaz

Form going into Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü

Bodrum FK

  • D1-1away to Pendikspor20 September 2026
  • W4-0Batman Petrolspor12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Mardin 19697 September 2026

Keçiörengücü

  • D1-1Sivasspor19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Vanspor FK12 September 2026
  • W3-0Sarıyer5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Bodrum FK10253119+211
6Keçiörengücü104511910+917

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü

  • 14 February 2026Bodrum FK 4–3 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 20 September 2025Keçiörengücü 2–1 Bodrum FK1. Lig
  • 6 April 2024Bodrum FK 0–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 11 November 2023Keçiörengücü 1–1 Bodrum FK1. Lig
  • 22 January 2023Bodrum FK 1–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
  • 21 August 2022Keçiörengücü 1–3 Bodrum FK1. Lig

Leading scorers: Bodrum FK and Keçiörengücü

Bodrum FK

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Keçiörengücü

GoalsAssists

  • M. Diouf52
  • F. Ezeh33

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.