Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Galatasaray 3-1 Kasımpaşa.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Galatasaray, 22% draw, 17% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Galatasaray at 61% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1U. CakirG
- 53B. YilmazD
- 6D. SanchezD
- 42A. BardakciD
- 4I. JakobsD
- 34L. TorreiraM
- 8Gabriel SaraM
- 11Y. AkgunM
- 83A. BatrakovM
- 27R. LeaoM
- 21D. GulF
- 24J. YilmazG
- 7R. SallaiF
- 3E. BitshiabuD
- 17E. ElmaliD
- 23K. AyhanD
- 20I. GundoganM
- 99M. LeminaM
- 74R. NhagaM
- 10L. SaneF
- 1A. GianniotisG
- 2C. WinckD
- 14K. MouangaD
- 27M. IlieD
- 45A. KarapoD
- 16A. BaldurssonM
- 26K. DemirbayM
- 50G. YalcinM
- 51E. MendesM
- 7A. KolM
- 9A. BenedyczakF
- 25A. YanarG
- 5J. JessenD
- 4A. ArousD
- 10H. HajradinovicM
- 8A. MujdeM
- 17J. Rak-SakyiF
- 66E. BozM
- 19M. RaffertyM
- 11T. DiarraF
Form going into Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray
- L0-4away to Trabzonspor19 September 2026
- W1-0Kocaelispor13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Başakşehir4 September 2026
- W3-2Göztepe29 August 2026
Kasımpaşa
- D0-0Konyaspor18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.13 September 2026
- D2-2Amed6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Başakşehir30 August 2026
What these results say
- Galatasaray won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Galatasaray scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Galatasaray conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kasımpaşa went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Kasımpaşa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kasımpaşa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
- 9 October 2026Galatasaray 3–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 17 May 2026Kasımpaşa 1–0 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 21 December 2025Galatasaray 3–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 2 March 2025Kasımpaşa 3–3 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 28 September 2024Galatasaray 3–3 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 17 March 2024Kasımpaşa 3–4 GalatasaraySüper Lig
Leading scorers: Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray
GoalsAssists
- V. Osimhen63
- Gabriel Sara22
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.