Sivasspor vs Pendikspor 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Sivasspor 4-1 Pendikspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Sivasspor, 30% draw, 30% Pendikspor — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sivasspor at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sivasspor vs Pendikspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16Arda ErdusunG
- 26M. YıldırımD
- 22O. ErdoğanD
- 4M. ÇelikD
- 58U. ÇiftçiD
- 66Oguzhan AksoyM
- 20M. MohammedM
- 30E. CeesayM
- 28S. KavrazlıM
- 27V. EthemiM
- 9R. ManajF
- 1G. BakırbaşG
- 8C. CharisisM
- 99Yilmaz CinF
- 17C. DuoduF
- 19E. GökayF
- 11B. KapacakM
- 77Y. KefkirD
- 34T. TuzlacikD
- 23C. ÇelikM
- 97U. YuvakuranG
- 22K. KalafatD
- 2T. İnceD
- 5B. SülüngözD
- 17S. AbifadeD
- 88D. HreljaM
- 41M. ÖzdemirM
- 14H. YeşilM
- 60B. KaradenizM
- 27Ismaila MangaF
- 34ThuramF
- 7E. BaşsanM
- 61O. ÃakıroÄluF
- 20Y. SönmezM
- 6V. SoldoD
- 28E. PekdemirM
- 30E. KoyuncuG
- 99M. KipritF
- 23E. GökçeD
- 66F. DoğanD
Form going into Sivasspor vs Pendikspor
Sivasspor
- D1-1away to Keçiörengücü19 September 2026
- D1-1Muğlaspor13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Antalyaspor6 September 2026
Pendikspor
- D1-1Bodrum FK20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boluspor12 September 2026
- W1-0Ümraniyespor5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sivasspor | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Pendikspor | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sivasspor vs Pendikspor
- 1 February 2026Sivasspor 0–0 Pendikspor1. Lig
- 31 August 2025Pendikspor 2–1 Sivasspor1. Lig
- 25 February 2024Sivasspor 4–1 PendiksporSüper Lig
- 7 October 2023Pendikspor 2–3 SivassporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Sivasspor and Pendikspor
Sivasspor
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj82
Pendikspor
GoalsAssists
- Thuram31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.