9 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer 1. Lig prediction & result

Istanbul
Referee: Erdem Mertoglu, Türkiye
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Ümraniyespor 1-1 Sarıyer.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Ümraniyespor, 31% draw, 32% Sarıyer — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ümraniyespor at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ümraniyespor3%Draw94%Sarıyer3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Tomislav Glumac
17'
⚽Oguz Yildirim
23'
🔁Berat Yılmazout: Atalay Babacan
45'
45'
🔁Işık Kaan Arslanout: Erdi Dikmen
61'
🔁Furkan Gedikout: Eren Karadağ
61'
🔁Barış Alıcıout: Dogan Can Davas
61'
🔁Batuhan Korout: Mamadou Thiam
🔁Yunus Emre Gedikout: Ali Yaşar
61'
73'
⚽Efecan Karaca
78'
🔁Tunahan Ergulout: Joseph Attamah
🔁Alejandro Blancoout: Kerem Sen
78'
🔁Serkan Göksuout: Bengali-Fodé Koita
78'
79'
Erdi Dikmen

Match stats — Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer

44%Possession56%
16Shots10
7On target3
4Corners3
1.21xG2.02

Goals against chances

Ümraniyespor1 from 1.21 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sarıyer1 from 2.02 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ümraniyespor 4-3-3
  • 35C. TopaloğluG
  • 70O. YıldırımD
  • 58M. KartalD
  • 44T. GlumacD
  • 88E. GedikD
  • 8S. GöksuM
  • 10A. ĐokanovićM
  • 17Berat YılmazM
  • 11Álex BlancoF
  • 27C. SoukouF
  • 7S. HostikkaF
Substitutes
  • 28O. AydoğanF
  • 20A. BabacanM
  • 9M. BostanF
  • 55F. KoitaF
  • 12Toheeb KosokoF
  • 13Ö. KöklüG
  • 77T. TaşçıF
  • 66A. YaşarD
  • 53B. ÖksüzD
Coach: T. Albayrak
Sarıyer 4-1-4-1
  • 13I. ŠehićG
  • 77C. KarayelD
  • 24K. ArslanD
  • 88C. OsmanpaşaD
  • 5E. KorkmazoğluD
  • 8Marcos SilvaM
  • 7B. AliciM
  • 41F. GedikM
  • 14T. ErgülM
  • 10E. KaracaM
  • 9B. KörF
Substitutes
  • 19Yagiz SenM
  • 11E. KaradağF
  • 93M. ThiamF
  • 90E. EzeF
  • 23Ü. ErgünD
  • 4E. DikmenD
  • 17D. DavasM
  • 53A. Biyogo PokoM
  • 3J. AttamahD
Coach: B. Bölükbaşı

Form going into Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer

Ümraniyespor

  • W1-0away to Bandırmaspor18 September 2026
  • L1-2Antalyaspor12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Pendikspor5 September 2026
  • L0-1Muğlaspor1 September 2026

Sarıyer

  • W2-1Boluspor19 September 2026
  • D1-1Bandırmaspor11 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Keçiörengücü5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Ümraniyespor failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Ümraniyespor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Ümraniyespor had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Ümraniyespor9144710-37
7Sarıyer104331314-115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ümraniyespor vs Sarıyer

  • 6 March 2026Sarıyer 1–2 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
  • 17 October 2025Ümraniyespor 1–3 Sarıyer1. Lig
  • 11 March 2016Ümraniyespor 1–0 Sarıyer2. Lig
  • 30 October 2015Sarıyer 0–2 Ümraniyespor2. Lig

Leading scorers: Ümraniyespor and Sarıyer

Ümraniyespor

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Sarıyer

GoalsAssists

  • B. Kör41

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.