11 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 Super League prediction & result

Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz
Referee: Alessandro Dudic
Full time3 – 0

Final score: FC Vaduz 3-0 FC Basel 1893.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Vaduz, 24% draw, 30% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Vaduz at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Vaduz99%Draw1%FC Basel 18930%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Marcel Monsbergerassist: Lutfi Dalipi
26'
⚽Marcel Monsbergerassist: Dominik Schwizer
36'
Denis Simani
48'
Juan Cabrera
50'
51'
Kazeem Olaigbe
Dominik Schwizer
52'
55'
🔁Kazeem Olaigbeout: Aaron Malouda
⚽Lutfi Dalipiassist: Milos Cocic
68'
🔁Milos Cocicout: Dejan Djokic
70'
71'
🔁Jonas harderout: Ludwig Thorell
71'
🔁Žan Celarout: giacomo koloto
71'
🔁Moussa Cisseout: Keigo Tsunemoto
85'
🔁Abemly Meto Silu Metinhoout: Akpe Victory
🔁Juan Cabreraout: Mattia walker
86'
🔁Lutfi Dalipiout: Malik Sawadogo
90'
🔁Dominik Schwizerout: mischa beeli
90'
🔁Marcel Monsbergerout: Niklas Lang
90'

Match stats — FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893

49%Possession51%
20Shots12
7On target1
1Corners5
3.11xG0.92

Goals against chances

FC Vaduz3 from 3.11 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Basel 18930 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Vaduz 4-1-2-1-2
  • 25L. SchaffranG
  • 4N. HaslerD
  • 6D. SimaniD
  • 5L. BerishaD
  • 7D. SchwizerD
  • 20L. MackM
  • 17J. StarkM
  • 10Juan CabreraM
  • 28M. ĆoćićM
  • 11L. DalipiF
  • 9M. MonsbergerF
Substitutes
  • 30Mattia WalkerM
  • 29M. SawadogoD
  • 27N. LangD
  • 18D. KasperF
  • 23M. HammerichM
  • 19D. DjokicF
  • 1B. BüchelG
  • 14M. BeeliD
Coach: M. Schneider
FC Basel 1893 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. OmlinG
  • 22C. MichelinD
  • 4B. OmeragićD
  • 24F. DaniliucD
  • 29M. CisséD
  • 5MetinhoM
  • 44J. HarderM
  • 7P. OteleM
  • 10X. ShaqiriM
  • 11K. OlaigbeM
  • 9Ž. CelarF
Substitutes
  • 41J. DoucoureM
  • 55A. VictoryD
  • 8L. Małachowski ThorellM
  • 17A. MaloudaF
  • 27K. RüeggD
  • 13M. SalviG
  • 6K. TsunemotoD
  • 3N. VouillozD
  • 37G. KolotoF
Coach: S. Jokanović

Form going into FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893

FC Vaduz

  • L1-2FC Thun20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Zurich13 September 2026
  • W3-1Lausanne5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Luzern2 September 2026

FC Basel 1893

  • L1-3FC St. Gallen20 September 2026
  • W4-2away to FC Luzern13 September 2026
  • L1-3FC Lugano6 September 2026
  • L1-2FC Sion3 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Vaduz scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Vaduz conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for FC Vaduz had three goals or more.
  • FC Basel 1893 scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Basel 1893 conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for FC Basel 1893 had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10FC Vaduz10307212109
7FC Basel 1893104151720-313

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893

  • 11 October 2026FC Vaduz 3–0 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 26 March 2026FC Basel 1893 2–5 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 July 2023FC Vaduz 1–2 FC Basel 1893Friendlies Clubs
  • 21 April 2021FC Vaduz 1–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 5 April 2021FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC VaduzSuper League
  • 12 December 2020FC Vaduz 0–2 FC Basel 1893Super League

Leading scorers: FC Vaduz and FC Basel 1893

FC Vaduz

GoalsAssists

  • M. Monsberger61
  • L. Dalipi49
  • Juan Cabrera40

FC Basel 1893

GoalsAssists

  • Ž. Celar61
  • A. Sow34
  • X. Shaqiri31

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.