Notts County
vs
Sheffield Wednesday
League One prediction
Our model says: Notts County 0–1 Sheffield Wednesday
The model makes it 34% Notts County, 30% draw, 36% Sheffield Wednesday — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Notts County 1.15, Sheffield Wednesday 1.19.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Notts County are 22nd on 7 points from 8 games; Sheffield Wednesday are 7th on 15 points from 8 games — League One.
- Notts County have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Oxford United.
- Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Huddersfield.
- Last 3 meetings: Sheffield Wednesday 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 August 2014, ended Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 Notts County.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sheffield Wednesday at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday
Notts County
- L1-2Oxford United10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Reading19 September 2026
- L0-1Bradford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Huddersfield5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Doncaster1 September 2026
Sheffield Wednesday
- D2-2away to Huddersfield10 October 2026
- D0-0Stockport County19 September 2026
- D0-0Wigan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Peterborough5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Wycombe1 September 2026
What these results say
- Notts County did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Notts County conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Notts County had two goals or fewer.
- Sheffield Wednesday went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 7 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Notts County
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
Sheffield Wednesday
Chance to finish in the top four · 23% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday
- 12 August 2014Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 Notts CountyLeague Cup
- 17 March 2012Notts County 1–2 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
- 20 August 2011Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 Notts CountyLeague One
Leading scorers: Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday
Notts County
No player in League One's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Sheffield Wednesday
GoalsAssists
- J. Lowe51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Notts County carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.32 for Sheffield Wednesday. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Notts County and 1.19 for Sheffield Wednesday. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Notts County rate 0.47 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sheffield Wednesday rate 0.56 and 1.61.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Notts County a 0.2% chance of the title and Sheffield Wednesday 4.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Wednesday the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Notts County against 1.19 for Sheffield Wednesday. Notts County's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.61 for Sheffield Wednesday.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Notts County at home · Sheffield Wednesday away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Notts County 8, Sheffield Wednesday 8.
Notts County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Sheffield Wednesday have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Notts County
- vs Stockport County24 Oct · League Onewin 30%
- at Mansfield Town31 Oct · League Onewin 26%
Sheffield Wednesday
- at Doncaster24 Oct · League Onewin 36%
- vs Cambridge United27 Oct · League Onewin 40%
- vs Blackpool1 Nov · League Onewin 45%
- vs Plymouth14 Nov · League Onewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.